Odds to land Aaron Judge: Yankees favoured to retain slugger
Aaron Judge seems likely to remain a Yankee. Photo by Adam Hunger/AP.

As MLB enters its offseason, the biggest story of free agency will be where Aaron Judge — the man who hit 62 home runs last season — decides to sign what will be a mammoth contract.

The latest: The New York Yankees remain likely to keep their towering slugger, but other clubs like the San Francisco Giants, New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers are undoubtedly in the mix.

Check out our latest Aaron Judge odds for where the superstar will play next.

Aaron Judge odds

Check out the latest odds to sign Aaron Judge. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.

TeamOdds (current)
New York Yankees-400
San Francisco Giants+300
New York Mets+500
Los Angeles Dodgers+700
Any other team+1,000
Boston Red Sox+1,500
Houston Astros+1,500
Philadelphia Phillies+2,000
Chicago White Sox+2,500
Minnesota Twins+3,500
Texas Rangers+4,000
Toronto Blue Jays+4,000

Odds as of 11:15 a.m. on 11/06/2022.

Best odds to land Aaron Judge

The favourite: Yankees (-400)

Not many baseball fans want to see Judge continue to wear pinstripes, but his return to the Evil Empire is probable.

That's mostly because Judge's value to the Yankees is enormous.

On the field, he accounted for almost a quarter of the team's home runs in 2022 (24.4%) and a whopping 32.5% of the team's position-player fWAR. If Judge departs the Yankees will be hard-pressed to replicate his production and their lineup will suddenly look far less intimidating.

Off the field, Judge is an enormously valuable brand ambassador who's working his way toward franchise icon status. Keeping him a Yankee for his entire career would have excellent PR value for the team while getting outbid on him would not go over well with the fanbase.

When the Yankees want and need a player — especially one who's arguably more valuable to them than anyone else — they tend to get him. That's especially true when all it takes to get him is money.

Teams to watch

Here's a quick note about a few of the favourites in the mix to acquire Judge.

San Francisco Giants (+300): After being out-gunned by the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres last season, the Giants may see Judge as the perfect player to get them back in the race.

The team has been unafraid to spend money in the past and it has surprising payroll flexibility with just over $100 million in guaranteed contracts for 2023. San Francisco also has the contracts of Brandon Crawford, Alex Wood, Evan Longoria, and Tommy La Stella expiring after the upcoming season — giving them plenty of latitude to pursue big long-term deals.

Judge is a Sacramento native who went to high school and college in California. If he has any interest in a homecoming of sorts, the Giants could make that happen.

New York Mets (+500): If New York brought Judge aboard they could move Jeff McNeil back to second base — arguably his best position — and pair him with Pete Alonso to have a one-two slugging punch capable of hitting 100 home runs per season.

Owner Steve Cohen is also a fan of splashing headline-making transactions. Stealing your crosstown rival's franchise player certainly fits the bill.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+700): Anytime a top-tier player becomes available Los Angeles has to be considered a viable suitor for their services.

The Dodgers have extremely deep pockets, they remain firmly in the midst of a window of contention and they're always trying to find the piece to put them over the top.

Los Angeles also has an enormous amount of money coming off the books with Trae Turner, David Price and Trevor Bauer's contracts expiring. Mookie Betts has also indicated he's willing to move to the infield to accommodate Judge.

The Dodgers also have the same California advantage the Giants possess.

Blue Jays odds to land Aaron Judge

Odds: Toronto Blue Jays (+4,000)

Unfortunately for the Blue Jays fans, imagining Aaron Judge in Toronto's uniform is pure wishcasting.

Toronto will enter the offseason with less payroll flexibility than it has possessed in recent years due to its young players progressing through arbitration and a lack of expiring contracts.

The Blue Jays will also navigate free agency knowing that extending players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alek Manoah is a priority and may be reluctant to lock in more costly long-term deals.

Judge is the type of player you throw all caution to the wind for, the Blue Jays are owned by a corporation with a market cap north of $28 billion and the team could use some outfield help.

That makes the chance of this happening more than zero. That doesn't mean it's a good value bet — even at +4,000

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.