Aaron Rodgers' Jets are a good value bet to miss NFL playoffs
Last year, in his age-39 season, Aaron Rodgers had a career-low 91.1 QB rating. Photo by Jacob Kupferman/AP.

Forget the "Hard Knocks" hype and the arrival of a four-time MVP — the New York Jets are an enticing plus-money pick to miss the playoffs.

The strike against New York last year was that its amazing defence was dragged down by a carousel of bad quarterbacks... so, problem solved, right? Not necessarily.

We'll make the case for why the Jets are a good bet to miss the playoffs (+108) in the 2023 NFL season.

What if Aaron Rodgers' decline is real?

Aaron Rodgers is strutting into Canton whenever he decides to hang up the cleats, but it won't be because of his 2022 performance. In 15 years as a starting quarterback, last season was clearly Rodgers' worst.

The well-decorated signal caller posted career lows in QB rating (91.1), passing yards per game (217.4) and air yards per attempt (6.8). He also tossed 12 interceptions, which was the most since his first year as a starter in 2008.

Based on EPA per play, as tracked by rbsdm.com, Rodgers ranked 21st among NFL starters in '22 — right between Andy Dalton and Justin Fields.

Click linked odds below to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Aaron Rodgers futures marketsBetting odds
Over 8.5 interceptions-134
Under 8.5 interceptions+108
Over 28.5 passing TDs-112
Under 28.5 passing TDs-112
Over 3,900.5 passing yards-112
Under 3,900.5 passing yards-112

Yes, Rodgers played the bulk of last season with a broken thumb. While it wasn't the worst injury he's played with (by his own admission), it obviously didn't help. But in a season where Rodgers will turn 40, susceptibility to injury is trending in the wrong direction.

That's especially true behind an offensive line that PFF ranks No. 23 in the NFL.

We expect a bounce-back of some kind from Rodgers, if only because the bar set in '22 is low.

But Rodgers said himself that he's "not (in New York) to be a saviour," and we're inclined to agree.

The Cook signing isn't as thrilling as you think

Dalvin Cook is a four-time reigning Pro Bowler who has rushed for 1,100-plus yards in each of the past four seasons. With that said, his yards per touch have declined in each of those seasons.

The ex-Viking rushed for a career-low 4.4 yards per carry in 2022. He also ranked 36th among running backs in defence-adjusted value over average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders.

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Adding a veteran back with a stellar track record sounds like a win, but the aforementioned data points suggest he's lost a step or two.

Also, the presence of Cook is not a vote of confidence for the health of Breece Hall, who suffered a serious knee injury amid a stellar rookie campaign last year.

Jets coach Robert Saleh has asserted that Hall should be ready for Week 1. But who knows when we'll actually see Hall at full strength.

A daunting division

As the Super Bowl futures odds indicate, the Jets are very much in the conversation to make a run into the postseason and beyond. But getting out of their own division could prove difficult enough.

Between the Bills, Jets and Dolphins, the AFC East is the only division housing three teams with Super Bowl odds of 25-to-1 or shorter.

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Josh Allen and the Bills are rightfully among the frontrunners, but a healthy Tua Tagovailoa can make waves in Miami, too.

And let's not forget about the Patriots, who went 2-0 against New York last year.

The Jets have finished last in the AFC East in six of their past seven seasons, and they haven't made the playoffs since 2010. At plus-money odds, we feel pretty good about riding with that precedent.

Click here to bet on the Jets to miss the playoffs ( +108)

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