Odds to win the AFC South: Jaguars favoured over Titans in do-or-die matchup
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans both control their own destinies to win the AFC South. Photo by Mark Zaleski/AP.

This is it. The AFC South will be decided in do-or-die fashion with a Week 18 matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans.

The latest: Tennessee needs to win to get in, while Jacksonville needs to win or tie. The Jaguars soundly defeated the Titans in Week 14, 36-22, and they've been the much better team of late.

With two weeks to go, here are the latest AFC South odds.

AFC South odds

Check out the latest odds to win the AFC South. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.

TeamOdds (Jan. 2)Odds (Dec. 27)
Jacksonville Jaguars-286-250
Tennessee Titans+225+200

Odds as of 2:45 p.m. on 01/02/2023.

Best AFC South odds

The favourite: Jaguars (-286)

Who could've predicted this as the Jaguars entered their Week 11 bye with a 3-7 record? Thanks to a 5-1 run since then, Jacksonville is in the driver's seat.

Jacksonville is a game up on Tennessee in the standings, but a win (or tie) is still necessary in their season finale matchup. Here's why:

  • If the Jaguars beat the Titans in Week 18, Jacksonville will have swept their head-to-head matchup and win the division
  • If the Titans beat the Jaguars in Week 18, Tennessee and Jacksonville will be 1-1 in their head-to-head matchup — but the Titans will win the division because they'll have a better AFC South record

Right now, Jacksonville is certainly the side that's trending positively. Not only have the Jags won five of their past six, but their plus-50 point differential is far better than the Titans' minus-57 differential.

Jacksonville also ranks 14th in total DVOA, per Football Outsiders, compared to the 24th-ranked DVOA for Tennessee.

The other AFC South choice

Best value: Titans (+225)

Following a loss in a meaningless game against the Cowboys, Tennessee picked up a little extra value for this market. And that's about as jovial as we can be about the Titans right now.

We're not going to hold the Week 17 loss against them, but the Titans lost five in a row before that, too. Such a skid is awfully concerning, especially given that Josh Dobbs will have to start in this week's game after guiding the offence to just 13 points this past Thursday.

One thing working to the Titans' advantage is that they'll have three additional days of rest before Saturday's showdown. If you think that's enough justification to back them as straight-up winners, the price is pretty solid.

Just be watchful of the Titans' injury report to be sure that Derrick Henry (hip) is back in action.

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.