Odds to win the AFC South: Titans tighten odds after win over Colts
After beating the Colts in Week 4, the Titans saw a notable shift in their AFC South odds. Photo by Darron Cummings/AP.

A head-to-head matchup in the AFC South this week really opened things up on the divisional odds leaderboard.

The latest: The Tennessee Titans hung on to defeat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4, shaking up the odds in the process. The Colts are still favourites, as they were in the preseason, but now is a difficult time to buy in on them.

Check out the latest AFC South odds.

AFC South odds

Check out the latest odds to win the AFC South. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.

TeamOdds on Oct. 3Odds on Sept. 26
Indianapolis Colts+160-106
Tennessee Titans+170+260
Jacksonville Jaguars+220+230
Houston Texans+4,000+3,300

Odds as of 2:51 p.m. on 10/03/2022.

Best AFC South odds

The favourite: Colts (+160)

It's difficult to understand how the Colts are still favoured to win the AFC South, given how poorly they've played through half of their divisional schedule.

Yes, the Colts have already faced the Texans, Titans and Jaguars once each through four weeks — and their record in those games is 0-2-1.

Despite rostering All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor and emerging star wideout Michael Pittman Jr., Indy ranks last in the NFL in scoring (14.3 points/game). Their defence has held up nicely so far, although All-Pro linebacker Shaq Leonard suffered a concussion in his season debut this past week.

It's clear that the Colts earned ample respect for knocking off the Chiefs, 20-17, in Week 3. But one win like that only gets a team so far, and going winless through three division games could be costly.

In the NFL, the second tiebreaker within a division race — against the head-to-head record — is one's record within the division.

Other AFC South choices

Best value: Jaguars (+220)

College football fans should be familiar with the term, "quality loss," which is kind of what the Jaguars experienced in Week 4.

Despite losing, Jacksonville saw its odds tighten ever-so-slightly thanks to the happenings of the Colts/Titans melee. The Jaguars hung in against the Eagles — the NFL's last unbeaten team — before losing, 29-21.

A road win over Philadelphia would've kept Jacksonville in sole possession of first in the AFC South, while likely giving them notably shorter odds to win the division. But taking a loss hasn't really cost them anything here.

One potential red flag was raised in this game, though. After allowing just 165 total rushing yards through three weeks, the Jags coughed up 210 yards on the ground against Philly. A bounce-back in that regard against Houston would be nice to see.

Team to watch: Titans (+170)

After two dreadful weeks, the Titans have successfully executed a mini-turnaround that have them just outside the shortest odds to win the AFC South.

Tennessee lost at home (by one point) to the Giants in Week 1 before getting embarrassed by the Bills in Week 2. Since then, however, the Titans have beaten the Raiders and Colts in one-score fashion.

The win over the Colts was notable for positioning, as it moved the Titans into a tie for first in the division. And that's great, but a pair of tight victories isn't going to totally change our mood about this squad.

Tennessee gained a total of 28 yards in the second half this past week across five possessions. That's alarmingly terrible, and it indicates that the bottom can fall out from this offence at any time.

On the plus side, Derrick Henry had another great game. He topped 140 scrimmage yards and found the end zone for a second consecutive week.

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