Odds to win the AL Cy Young Award: Justin Verlander reclaims frontrunner status
After just one start since returning from an IL stint, Verlander is once again a heavy favourite to win the AL Cy Young award. Photo by David J. Phillip/AP.

Justin Verlander is back to full health, and his lead on the AL Cy Young odds leaderboard has never been healthier.

The latest: Verlander missed roughly three weeks with a calf injury before returning on Sept. 16, falling to even odds while he sat out. He hasn't missed a step since returning, leaving Chicago's Dylan Cease in his wake with a nearly insurmountable lead.

With only a week left to play, here are the latest AL Cy Young odds.

AL Cy Young odds

Check out the latest odds to win the AL Cy Young. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.

PlayerOdds (Sept. 28)Odds (Sept. 21)
Justin Verlander-2,000-400
Dylan Cease+1,000+375
Framber Valdez+7,000+1,600
Shane McClanahan+7,000+3,300
Alek Manoah+25,000+7,000
Shohei Ohtani+25,000+8,000

Odds as of 3:46 p.m. on 09/28/2022.

Best AL Cy Young odds

The favourite: Verlander (-2,000)

With two stellar outings, Verlander let his performance speak for itself. The 39-year-old frontrunner is back.

Verlander tossed five no-hit innings (one walk) against the A's in his return from the IL, then he followed it up with a quality start against the Orioles. Neither of those offences is particularly imposing, but it was still important for Verlander to prove he's fully recovered from the calf injury. And boy, did he prove it.

His odds declined slowly over his three-week absence, but the recent movement tells us everything we need to know. Barring any setbacks over his final two starts, this is Verlander's award to lose.

The AL West-winning Astros didn't hurry their ace back into action, and it didn't matter. Once he returned, his odds shortened from +100 to -400 in a snap. And now those odds sit at -2,000.

In his hunt for a third Cy Young award, Verlander paces the AL in ERA (1.82), WHIP (0.840), wins (17) and win probability added (3.69).

What he's done — after missing nearly two full seasons with an elbow injury — is incredible. It'll probably be award-winning, too.

Other AL Cy Young choices

Best value: Cease (+1,000)

At the mid-season mark, Cease had 17-to-1 odds for the Cy Young and was a mainstay in our "player to watch" section of this article. He rose to a minus-odds favourite earlier this month — when Verlander was sidelined — and now he's the only true challenger in Verlander's Cy Young pursuit.

While Verlander was stuck on the IL, Cease posted a 1.35 ERA, .145 opponent batting average and 1.61 FIP over three starts.

For a moment, it looked like Cease controlled his own destiny in the minds of Cy Young voters. That's not really the case now, but Cease is still a worthy candidate to consider. He ranks second in the AL in K/9 (11.16), second in ERA (2.06), fourth in FIP (2.95) and first in bWAR (6.5).

His risk for blowup outings is higher than most contenders due to his walk rate (3.72 BB/9, highest in the AL). Then again, he owns all the tools to get out of trouble, including a 91st-percentile whiff rate, a 97-mph fastball and a slider with a .129 batting average allowed.

Player to watch: Framber Valdez (+7,000)

If you want a candidate whose platform centres on volume, Valdez has you covered.

He's second in the AL in innings (191.0) and complete games (three) while posting a stout 2.69 ERA — good for fifth in the league.

Over his past eight starts, Valdez has posted a 2.25 ERA, collecting six wins and a 10.0 K/9 rate in that span.

His odds have fluctuated severely in recent weeks, and we still firmly believe that a bet on Valdez is a bet on the wrong Astro.

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.