Odds to win AL Rookie of the Year: Orioles' Henderson, Rodriguez should compete
Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson is a pretty big favourite to win AL Rookie of the Year in 2023. Photo by Julio Cortez/AP.

When a new baseball season opens, it will bring a fresh crop of AL Rookie of the Year hopefuls with it.

The latest: Gunnar Henderson posted a short but sweet debut with the Baltimore Orioles in 2022, and now he's a pretty hefty favourite to win Rookie of the Year honours in his first full season. And Henderson's teammate, Grayson Rodriguez, has a high enough ceiling to be our AL ROY value pick.

Check out the latest AL Rookie of the Year odds.

AL Rookie of the Year odds

Check out the latest odds to win the AL Rookie of the Year. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.

Gunnar Henderson+250
Masataka Yoshida+650
Triston Casas+700
Anthony Volpe+750
Hunter Brown+850
Royce Lewis+850
Grayson Rodriguez+1,000
Josh Jung+1,100
Logan O'Hoppe+1,500
Oscar Colas+1,500
Bo Naylor+2,500
Joey Wentz+2,800
Cody Morris+3,000
Zach Neto+3,300
Ceddane Rafaela+3,300
Yosver Zulueta+3,300
Emerson Hancock+4,000
Pedro Leon+4,000

MLB odds as of 1:45 p.m. on 03/19/2023.

Best AL Rookie of the Year odds

The favourite: Gunnar Henderson (+250)

Expectations are high for Henderson, and not just because that's what his AL ROY odds indicate.

Henderson is the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America. Some recent young stars to carry that honour include Wander Franco (pre-2021) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (pre-2019).

What's nice about Henderson's ROY case is that he's not a completely blank slate. He debuted for the Orioles at the end of last summer, slashing .259/.348/.440 (123 OPS+) over 34 games.

He should walk into Baltimore's starting shortstop role on opening day, and if he performs like last year he'll have an excellent shot to win this award.

The 2019 second-round pick has performed at every stop since being drafted, albeit in somewhat limited opportunities due to the cancellation of the 2020 minor league season.

Two years ago, he posted an .826 OPS across three levels. Last year, Henderson had a .946 OPS split between Double-A and Triple-A.

Other AL Rookie of the Year choices

Best value: Grayson Rodriguez (+1,000)

We promise this isn't meant to be an Orioles propaganda article — they just have a lot of good, young players.

Rodriguez is expected to break camp in the team's starting rotation, as general manager Mike Elias publicized in late January. If so, the former first-round pick should have plenty of opportunity to show he belongs in the running for ROY.

Last season, Rodriguez carved up Triple-A hitters in 14 starts, posting a 2.20 ERA and 12.5 K/9. We haven't seen him face big leaguers yet, but it sure seems like he's ready.

FanGraphs' Steamer projections have Rodriguez pitching to a 3.83 ERA over 139 innings in his rookie year. A little more volume than that would be nice, but numbers in that range would likely make him a compelling candidate.

Player to watch: Joey Wentz (+2,800)

Wentz will have to compete for a spot in the Tigers' rotation this spring, which obviously adds a layer of risk to whether or not he can win this award. But based on how he fared in his quick MLB stint last year, he deserves a closer look.

In his Detroit debut, Wentz got shelled. But he quickly rebounded, posting a 1.50 ERA over his subsequent six starts. The 2016 first-rounder was once the centrepiece of the Tigers/Braves Shane Greene trade, and he'll ideally be part of Detroit's rotation soon.

The current group is a heap of mediocrity, with all five pitchers projected at FanGraphs for ERAs of 3.90 or higher. Even if Wentz doesn't reach the rotation on opening day, his call could come shortly thereafter.

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