Bengals vs. Chiefs TD picks: Count on Ja'Marr Chase to score
Ja'Marr Chase has found the end zone consistently this season. Photo by Joshua Bessex/AP.

The Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs battle Sunday for the fourth time since January 2, 2022, when they face off in the AFC championship game on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Ja'Marr Chase has been a fixture in the end zone this season, Jerick McKinnon can say the same lately and betting on Joe Burrow's legs is an interesting dart throw.

Check out our best Bengals vs. Chiefs TD picks for the AFC championship game on January 29.

Bengals vs. Chiefs TD picks overview

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Bengals vs. Chiefs TD picksOddsBet now ⬇️
Chase anytime touchdown-106Add to betslip
McKinnon anytime touchdown+163Add to betslip
Burrow anytime touchdown+425Add to betslip

Odds as of 4:15 p.m. on 01/25/2023.

NorthStar Specials: Check out all our NFL playoff boosts

Bengals vs. Chiefs TD picks

Best Bet: Chase anytime touchdown (-106)

Getting a Chase touchdown at near-even money is great value considering how consistently he's scored this season.

Cincinnati's top receiver has 11 touchdowns in 14 games, and he's been especially reliable down the stretch. Chase has scored in three straight games and five of his last six.

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The underlying numbers are also strong for the 22-year-old as he led all wide receivers in red zone targets (2.2) per game during the regular season, according to Lineups.com.

He'll also benefit from an outstanding matchup on Sunday. The Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL during the regular season (33), and Chase has torched them in recent matchups.

The wideout has 417 yards and four touchdowns against Kansas City in the teams' three recent showdowns, missing paydirt only once.

NFL championship game boostsOddsBet now ⬇️
Hurts, Mahomes & Burrow to combine for 7+ passing TDs +230 (was +200)Add to betslip
AJ Brown, Kelce, & Chase to combine for 20+ receptions +135 (was +115)Add to betslip
Sanders, Pacheco & Mixon to rush for 50+ yards each+505 (was +440)Add to betslip
McCaffrey & Kelce both to score a TD +280 (was +235)Add to betslip
KC -2.5, Chase & Kelce 80+ receiving yards each+660 (was +550)Add to betslip

We'd happily endorse Chase at these odds in all but the toughest matchups, and this one is as easy as they come. He has also exploited it multiple times in the last 13 months.

Key stat: Chase has nine touchdowns in his last nine games, failing to find the end zone just twice.

Quick picks

McKinnon anytime touchdown (+163): This line is extremely generous for a running back who entered the playoffs on a six-game touchdown streak, with nine total scores.

Although the running back couldn't find the end zone in the divisional round, he saw his highest snap share of the season (65%).

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McKinnon is the running back the Chiefs trust most right now, and Patrick Mahomes has been feeding him red zone targets since the beginning of December.

Burrow anytime touchdown (+425): This is a deep value pick, but it's worth a sprinkle.

Burrow has scored in a much higher percentage of his starts (33%) than the implied odds on this line (19%), and only five teams allowed more quarterback rushing touchdowns than the Chiefs during the regular season (four).

The Bengals quarterback has also carried the ball at least five times in both of his playoff games, something he did in just six of 16 regular season starts. An increased willingness to run with so much on the line could lead to a touchdown for Burrow.

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