The playoff races are heating up in the NFL and all three games I'm picking have major postseason implications.

The pregame narrative: The Cleveland Browns may be without their quarterback but they have a defence that'll give them a chance to win against the Denver Broncos. The Atlanta Falcons will be able to have their way in Sunday's matchup against the New Orleans. Thirdly, the Houston Texans are a strong pick to win at home over their divisional rival, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Here are our best early NFL Week 12 picks.

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Best early NFL Week 12 picks overview

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NFL odds as of 11:10 a.m. on 11/21/2023.

Best early NFL Week 12 picks

Best Bet: Browns moneyline (+105)

Denver has been getting by on playing mistake-free football while forcing turnovers on defence, but that's not a sustainable way to win football games.

The Broncos have a 13-2 turnover edge over their opponents during their four-game winning streak, but winning in that fashion will be difficult against a Cleveland team that won't be taking many risks. Although the Browns rank third in giveaways with 20, most of those (13) have been interceptions.

They won't have to pass the ball often against Denver's defence as the unit has been miserable on the ground. The Broncos are ceding the most rushing yards per attempt (5.5) in the NFL this season.

That spells trouble considering Cleveland is averaging a respectable 4.2 yards per carry this year and will lean heavily on the rushing attack with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under centre.

Expect Denver to struggle against the league's sixth-best scoring defence (18.0) in 2023.

Key stat: Cleveland is allowing the fewest yards per game (243.3) to its opponents this season.

Quick picks

Falcons moneyline (-110): Both New Orleans and Atlanta are coming off a bye week but I really like the value with the home team in this one.

The Saints want to pass the ball, but they're averaging an inefficient 6.6 yards per attempt and facing a Falcons defence that's tied for ceding the 10th-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.2).

Atlanta wants to run the football and that shouldn't be a problem. It's averaging the 14th-most yards per rush (4.2). New Orleans' defence, meanwhile, ranks 23rd in opponent yards per rush attempt (4.3).

Texans moneyline (+100): Houston already laid a beating on Jacksonville this year and I'm betting it's able to earn another win.

The Texans beat the Jaguars 37-17 in a game where C.J. Stroud threw for 280 passing yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. He should be able to have another strong game through the air against Jacksonville's pass defence. The unit is tied for surrendering the 10th-most yards per pass attempt (6.7).

Those who believe in historical trends will also like to know that Houston has won 10 of the last 11 head-to-head contests between these two AFC South squads. This trend dates back to 2014.

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