Best NFL quarterback bets for the 2023 season: Fade Dolphins' Tagovailoa
Photo by Eric Christian Smith/AP. Fade Tua Tagovailoa in 2023 because of his injury risk.

The most important position in sports is front and centre as we dive into our favourite quarterback futures bets.

The pregame narrative: While there's nothing more enjoyable than cheering on your favourite player, that's not what we're looking to do here. Betting against some of the league's signal-callers is largely what we're interested in for this upcoming season.

Check out the best NFL quarterback bets to make for the 2023 season.

Best NFL quarterback bets overview

Click link to add selection to betslip: Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

NFL QB betsOddsAdd to betslip ⬇️
Jimmy Garoppolo under 3,200.5 passing yards-112Add to betslip
Justin Fields under 2,900.5 passing yards-118Add to betslip
Lamar Jackson under 3,500.5 passing yards-121Add to betslip
Tua Tagovailoa under 3,750.5 passing yards-112Add to betslip
Josh Allen to win MVP+800Add to betslip

NFL odds as of 12:32 p.m. on 08/26/2023.

Best NFL quarterback bets

Best Bet: Garoppolo under 3,200.5 passing yards (-112)

Garoppolo enters this season with some health concerns, and that's never a good thing.

The Las Vegas Raiders quarterback underwent foot surgery shortly after signing with the team and that issue has lingered into training camp. Las Vegas has been monitoring Garoppolo's foot ailment, even pulling him early from sessions.

Jimmy Garoppolo's health will be worth monitoring for the 2023 season.

It's reasonable to expect Garoppolo to miss time, too, as he's played more than six games in just three of his last six seasons. He's naturally gone below this mark in four of those campaigns, including last year.

We're out on Garoppolo, who is no longer benefitting from head coach Kyle Shanahan's schemes or a San Francisco offensive line that was among the best in the league during his time there.

Best Bet: Fields under 2,900.5 passing yards (-118)

It's fair to expect Fields to make strides in his third season, but this line is a bridge too far.

We'll continue to be skeptical about Fields' arm talent until we actually see him slice up defences through the air. The Chicago Bears star was producing 7.1 yards per attempt in 2022, averaging just 149.5 passing yards per game.

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There's also the fact that Chicago ran the ball on 56.2% of its plays last season, the most of any team. While the Bears will likely look to throw the ball more, don't expect a complete reversal on a team led by a rushing quarterback.

The addition of D.J. Moore will help him out, but a bad offensive line figures to do him little favours. He finished with 2,242 passing yards a season ago and making the jump to 2,900 seems too drastic from one season to the next.

More QB bets

Best Bet: Jackson under 3,500.5 passing yards (-121)

This isn't an anti-Jackson pick. This is a full fade of this ridiculously high number.

A passing yards line of 3,500 yards isn't much for a traditional pocket passer, but nothing Jackson has ever done on a football field suggests he's a traditional pocket passer.

Jackson's highest single-season passing yards total is 3,127, a mark he hit in his MVP campaign. In other words, he was 373.5 passing yards short of this line in a year where he was the league's most valuable player.

Lamar Jackson's passing yards line is too high for the 2023 season.

New offensive coordinator Todd Monken has a track record that suggests that the Ravens will pass the ball more, and so do their offseason moves. The team added Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency and used a first-round pick to select wide receiver Zay Flowers.

While the plan may be to pass the ball more, Jackson hasn't proven to be an elite passer and will still likely lean on his legs.

Durability is another factor when placing this wager. It'd be silly to ignore the fact that Jackson has played 12 games in each of the last two seasons. Injuries are difficult to predict but his play style does open him up to more contact than others.

Even if Jackson has a great season, which we're expecting him to have, history suggests he can still fall comfortably short of this mark.

Tagovailoa under 3,750.5 passing yards (-112)

Tagovailoa is capable of putting up video game numbers when healthy, but it's that when healthy part we're not really sure of.

The Dolphins quarterback was slinging it all over the field to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle last year, but he was also dealing with some pretty serious concussion scares.

Injuries limited him to just 13 games and held him to 3,548 passing yards despite leading the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9).

When we hear a QB is doing jiu-jitsu to combat injuries, we're likely going to fade that player on the basis that their injury risk is just too high.

Best NFL quarterback bets: The long shot

Allen to win MVP (+800)

Allen isn't a long shot in the context of the NFL MVP odds leaderboard, but this pick does carry far longer odds than the picks above. And we're happy to take it to back one of the game's best passers.

Allen was the frontrunner to win this award for most of last season. A partially torn UCL suffered in Week 9 against the New York Jets drastically impacted his efficiency.

Check out his splits from before and after the injury.

Week 1-865.5%8.3314196
Week 9-1861.4%6.9231.7168
Stats via Pro Football Reference

Allen was worse in each of the statistics listed above after suffering the ailment.

But the Buffalo Bills quarterback enters 2023 after having an entire offseason to heal. The offence returns almost entirely the same with an added weapon in the passing game: first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid.

Oh, and let's not forget about Allen's elite rushing abilities. The dual-threat QB has rushed for 1,525 yards across the last two seasons with 15 scores on the ground.

There's no real reason why Allen can't return to his pre-injury form, which means he'll likely be at the front of the MVP conversation once again.

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