Another week, another clinic in prime time from the Buffalo Bills.
Another week, another clinic in prime time from the Buffalo Bills.
The most impressive part of Buffalo's Week 2 win on Monday Night Football was the defensive effort, specifically the success it had stopping Derrick Henry on the ground. The team completely stifled one of the game's top runners and blew up Tennessee's offensive game plan.
With Buffalo looking to get out to a 3-0 start, check out our Bills betting trends ahead of the team's Week 3 road contest against the Miami Dolphins.
Two weeks into the season and two offences have been completely mystified by the Bills.
The Bills have allowed just 17 points through two games, ranking first in rushing yards allowed per contest (66.0) and second in passing yards allowed per game (149.0).
Buffalo's results are even more impressive when you consider its opponents have been the Super Bowl champs and the AFC's No. 1 seed from last year.
PICK-6! The @BuffaloBills lead 41-7!
— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2022
📺: #TENvsBUF on ESPN
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/j1VWc0P4Rm pic.twitter.com/a2wMwzElYa
The defence's dominance has unearthed a few trends that bettors should look to pounce on when wagering on the Bills.
Betting Buffalo to cover the second-half spread is one. The Bills haven't allowed any points after halftime and have outscored opponents 45-0 over the final two quarters.
Another bet to consider is the over on the opposing passer's interceptions line. Buffalo is tied for first in the NFL with five picks.
| Market | Odds | Bet now |
| Bills to win Super Bowl | +425 | Add to betslip |
| Bills to win AFC Championship | +225 | Add to betslip |
| Bills to win AFC East | -335 | Add to betslip |
| Josh Allen to win MVP | +350 | Add to betslip |
Odds as of 8:36 p.m. ET on 09/20/2022.
The third is obvious, which is betting the under on an opponent's total. Both the Rams and Titans fell comfortably below their expected point totals.
Taking the under on opposing players' yardage props is another way to bet on Buffalo's defence and fade its opponents.
Bettors learned on Monday that Josh Allen's going to absolutely feed Stefon Diggs whenever Gabriel Davis is out of the lineup.
Diggs saw 14 targets from Allen, turning that massive involvement into 12 receptions, 148 yards and a career-high-tying three touchdowns.
No other player recorded more than 50 receiving yards and Allen's only other touchdown pass went to fullback Reggie Gilliam.
While the over on Diggs props should be a must when Davis is out, it's important to remember Buffalo's No. 1 receiver also saw nine targets in Week 1 with a healthy Davis. He turned those looks into eight catches for 122 yards and a touchdown.
The highest-graded wide receiver in the NFL through 2 weeks:
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 20, 2022
👑 Stefon Diggs - 90.9
(📸 @BuffaloBills) pic.twitter.com/R6pADB2C3v
The Allen-to-Diggs connection is one of the best in the NFL and everything points to the wideout having another monster season in Buffalo.
Diggs has 270 receiving yards through two weeks. That's more than the 238 he recorded at this point in 2020, the year he led the NFL in receiving yards.
As was the case in Week 1, the running backs contributed very little to Buffalo's overall output on offence.
James Cook actually paced the team with 11 carries, but most of his work came with the game already wrapped up. He turned those into a respectable 53 yards, though it's unlikely he would've seen that much volume had the game been closer.
Cook played on 26% of the team's total offensive snaps, ranking second at his position.
Devin Singletary's six carries were second, but he was only able to collect 19 yards on the ground. He caught two of his four targets and earned an underwhelming two receiving yards. The 25-year-old was on the field more than the others, however, playing 54% of the snaps.
A week after tying a career high with six receptions, Zack Moss didn't notch a single catch. He carried the ball three times for 17 yards, appearing on just 19% of the offensive plays.
Buffalo's backs combined for 89 yards on 20 carries and just two receiving yards. The Bills went 21 consecutive plays without rushing the ball, showing that the ground game is an afterthought in this offence.
None of these runners can be trusted.
It's not a bad idea to bet the over on Allen's longest completion prop.
The quarterback's known for having a rocket arm and it's been on full display this season. Allen uncorked a 53-yard touchdown pass to Diggs in Week 1 and a 46-yard bomb to his main man in Week 2.
Every route is a Diggs route.@StefonDiggs' second TD of the game!
— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2022
📺: #TENvsBUF on ESPN
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/j1VWc0P4Rm pic.twitter.com/xbXBZqoMnm
Dating back to last year's postseason, the 26-year-old has now thrown a 40-plus yard pass in four consecutive games.
Allen's tied for third in average completed air yards distance with a mark of 7.6, according to Next Gen Stats, which shows that he's pushing the ball downfield.
It's wise for bettors to hop on this trend early because it could be a result of new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey's affinity for stretching the field.
Allen sits second with three pass attempts of 40-plus yards so far this season, demonstrating that Buffalo's taking shots when it approaches midfield.
Dawson Knox ranked second on the Bills with 19 red-zone targets last season, but he hasn't seen any looks inside the 20 through two games.
Although Knox is tied for second on the team with seven total targets, he's turned those into just five catches for 46 yards.
Simply put, it's been all Diggs in the receiving game. On quick throws, downfield looks, and everything in between, the excellent route runner's been able to get open which has funnelled most of the work to him.
Diggs' 23 targets are more than three times as many as any other offensive player.
While Knox will have his moments, there is no indication that it's coming any time soon.