Buffalo Bills betting preview: Futures odds, top picks and bets to fade
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are one of the most lethal connections in the NFL. Photo by Jeffrey T. Barnes/AP.

The start of training camp means Buffalo Bills football is officially back and the expectations couldn't be higher for the team ahead of the 2022 season.

The latest: Bills fans don't need a reminder on how last year ended. The playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs is in the past and now Buffalo forges forward with a roster that received some improvements this offseason.

Check out all of the odds and key storylines for Buffalo's upcoming season in our Bills betting preview.

Bills betting preview: Team odds

MarketOdds
To win Super Bowl+600
To win AFC Championship+325
To win AFC East-230
Win total (11.5)Over (-143) or Under (+118)
To reach playoffsYes (-625) or No (+440)

(Click link to add to betslip)

Odds as of 6:29 p.m. on 09/01/2022.

Bills betting preview: The offseason

Here's a look at the additions and subtractions the Bills made this offseason:

Key additions

  • OLB Von Miller (six-year, $120 million contract)
  • DT DaQuan Jones (two-year, $14 million contract)
  • DT Tim Settle (two-year, $9 million contract)
  • G Roger Saffold (one-year, $6.25 million contract)
  • DE Jordan Phillips (one-year, $5 million contract)

Key departures

  • DT Harrison Phillips (three-year, $19.5 million contract with Minnesota Vikings)
  • QB Mitch Trubisky (two-year, $14.285 million contract with Pittsburgh Steelers)
  • CB Levi Wallace (two-year, $8 million contract with Steelers)
  • DE Mario Addison (two-year, $7.70 million contract with Houston Texans)

Key draft picks

  • Round 1 - CB Kaiir Elam (23rd overall)
  • Round 2 - RB James Cook (63rd overall)
  • Round 3 - LB Terrel Bernard (89th overall)
  • Round 5 - WR Khalil Shakir (148th overall)
  • Round 6 - P Matt Araiza (180th overall)

Best Bills futures bet

Bills to win the Super Bowl (+600)

Buffalo's expectations are Super Bowl or bust entering this season and that's exactly the mentality fans and bettors should take.

The Bills have fallen just short of making it to the Big Game in each of the past two seasons. General manager Brandon Beane has done his best to ensure the team reaches its goal in 2022 by adding players like Miller and Saffold while keeping the core intact.

A lot of the teams directly trailing Buffalo on the Super Bowl odds leaderboard can't say the same thing.

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750) received more subtractions than additions with the losses of TE Rob Gronkowski, G Alex Cappa, and S Jordan Whitehead.
  • Both the Green Bay Packers (+1,000) and Kansas City Chiefs (+1,000) lost their No. 1 wide receivers in Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, respectively.
  • The Los Angeles Rams (+1,100) lost Miller to Buffalo and didn't have a pick in the first two rounds of this past draft.

While the Bills spent the offseason bolstering their roster, the rest of the top contenders actually took a step back.

Despite having the shortest odds of any team to win the Super Bowl, we actually think it's fair to say there's more value backing them to win it all than any one of the four teams immediately slotted behind them.

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Super Bowl odds
Avery Perri

Don't be afraid to circle the wagons in 2022.

Bet to fade

Bills over 11.5 wins (-143)

First off, we're not a big fan of paying this much juice on a win total.

Secondly, winning 12 games is very hard to do in the NFL. Only six teams managed to clear this total a season ago and just two from that group were able to win 13.

Read More
How to bet on the Bills
Steven Psihogios

It also doesn't help that the Bills have a challenging list of out-of-division opponents to face this season which is highlighted by matchups against the Rams, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, Chiefs, Packers and Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bills, the AFC East favourites, also play in a division that's clearly ascending.

  • The New England Patriots made the playoffs in 2021 and QB Mac Jones will look to build on a solid rookie campaign. New England has made the playoffs in 12 of its last 13 seasons and figures to be competitive once again.
  • The Miami Dolphins added WR Tyreek Hill and LT Terron Armstead while signing former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel as their new head coach. Miami finished with a 9-8 record last year, making the AFC East one of just three divisions that had three teams finish with a record better than .500.

Even the New York Jets appear to be trending in the right direction after having three first-round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft and signing G Laken Tomlinson to help solidify an offensive line that should keep Zach Wilson upright in 2022.

In short, there's not a lot of room for error with this win total and a decent amount of vig to pay.

Bills player odds

MarketOdds
Josh Allen to win MVP+700
Josh Allen to lead NFL in passing yards+1,200
Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year+2,000
Josh Allen to lead NFL in passing touchdowns+800
Josh Allen passing yards total (4,350.5)Over (-112) or Under (-112)
Josh Allen passing touchdowns total (34.5)Over (-124) or Under (+100)
James Cook to win Offensive Rookie of the Year+1,400
Gabriel Davis to lead NFL in receiving yards+4,000
Gabriel Davis receiving yards total (875.5)Over (+100) or Under (-124)
Gabriel Davis receiving touchdowns total (7.5)Over (-125) or Under (+101)
Gabriel Davis to lead NFL in receiving touchdowns+2,500
Stefon Diggs to lead NFL in receiving yards+1,600
Stefon Diggs receiving yards total (1,200.5)Over (-112) or Under (-112)
Stefon Diggs receiving touchdowns total (8.5)Over (-118) or Under (-106)
Stefon Diggs to win Offensive Player of the Year+4,500
Stefon Diggs to lead NFL in receiving touchdowns+1,500
Kaiir Elam to win Defensive Rookie of the Year+2,000
Von Miller to win Defensive Player of the Year+4,000
Von Miller to lead NFL in sacks+2,500

(Click link to add to betslip)

Odds as of 6:29 p.m. on 09/01/2022.

Best player futures bet

Diggs to lead NFL in receiving yards (+1,400)

Of all the player futures listed above, our favourite is the one with juicy plus-money odds that's actually occurred before.

There's some really nice value when it comes to betting on Diggs to lead the NFL in receiving yards and that's mainly because he recently pulled off this feat in 2020.

He finished with 1,535 receiving yards that year which put him 100-plus yards ahead of second-placed Travis Kelce who totalled 1,416 receiving yards.

Stefon Diggs has led the NFL in receiving yards before. Photo by Jeffrey T. Barnes/AP.

Diggs is also coming off a season where he was once again near the top of the league in the category. His 1,225 receiving yards in 2021 ranked eighth in the NFL while his 1,828 total air yards only trailed Justin Jefferson, according to PlayerProfiler.

The latter is a great indicator that he's still seeing the usage required to be among the NFL's best.

It also helps that Buffalo didn't add anyone of real significance to the receiving room this offseason. Gabriel Davis figures to take on a larger role but there are 199 vacated targets in this offence, according to 4for4, which is the 12th most in the NFL.

The only notable receivers that the Bills added were WR Jamison Crowder and WR Khalil Shakir, and neither projects to be an every-down wideout on the team.

There's plenty of reason to believe that Diggs can pace the NFL in receiving yards this year.

Bet to fade

Davis to lead NFL in receiving touchdowns (+2,000)

Football fans have been enamoured by Davis ever since his breakout performance in the divisional round but we think the hype has gone a little too far.

It's hard to ignore when a second-year player hauls in eight receptions for 201 yards and four touchdowns in what was the most entertaining game of the year, but it's important to remember that was just one game.

The issue we have with this bet is that there's really no value at this current line. The 4.76 percent implied odds that accompany this wager prove that this is based more on what Davis may do than what he's actually done in the NFL.

Forget leading the league, Davis actually finished third on his own team in receiving touchdowns last year with six. He will be stepping into a larger role this season as the clear No. 2 option but he still files behind an established alpha wide receiver in Diggs on the depth chart.

To further put this line into perspective, Davis features the same odds to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns as Tyreek Hill and Tee Higgins.

Although Davis is poised to have a career year it would be very presumptuous to expect him to lead the NFL in any receiving category.

Best long shot Bills bet

Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year (+2,000)

You're not going to find a lot of Bills-related bets with true long shot odds, but this wager has a pretty appealing return.

Unlike the NFL MVP Award which has gone to a QB each of the last nine years, NFL Offensive Player of the Year has gone to a non-QB in three consecutive seasons. Allen (+700) has the best odds of any player to win MVP this year which is a positive for his case to win this award, too.

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Odds to win NFL MVP
Nick Ashbourne

Each of the last four QBs to win Offensive Player of the Year (Patrick Mahomes: 2018, Matt Ryan: 2016, Cam Newton: 2015 and Peyton Manning: 2013), also won MVP that same season. Allen can put himself in the mix for OPOY if he has an MVP-level campaign.

It also helps that Allen has received recognition among award voters in the past. Buffalo's QB tied for fourth in votes for the award in 2020.

There are not many ways to bet on Allen that feature odds this juicy. This isn't a bad bet on a player who is absolutely capable of taking the league by storm.

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.