Buffalo Bills betting preview: Futures odds, player props and our best Josh Allen bet
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs form one of the NFL's most dynamic duos. Photo by Jeffrey T. Barnes/AP

The NFL preseason is underway which means it won't be long until the Buffalo Bills are back in action, vying for their first-ever Super Bowl.

Everything that could go wrong — and then some — did go wrong for Buffalo last season. But the 2023 campaign offers an opportunity to turn the page and write a new chapter of Bills football.

Check out all of the odds and key storylines for Buffalo's upcoming season in our Bills betting preview.

Bills betting preview: Team odds

Click any linked odds in our Bills betting preview to add a selection to your betslip: Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

To win Super Bowl+900
To win AFC Championship+475
To win AFC East+120
Win total (10.5)Over (-159) or Under (+128)
To reach playoffsYes (-250) or No (+200)

NFL odds as of 1:08 p.m. on 08/16/2023.

Bills team betting markets

To win Super Bowl (+900): The Bills' window to climb the mountain remains open with Josh Allen under centre. Allen is among the game's elite talents at the position and all indicators suggest he's healthy after suffering a partially torn UCL in his right elbow midway through last season.

The defence should be much improved with the signing of Leonard Floyd and the reinsertion of Von Miller into the lineup.

Miller's timetable to return remains unclear as he starts the year on the PUP list, but the important thing will be getting him back healthy for the postseason.

The Bills have the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl.

To win AFC Championship (+475): The AFC runs through the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City has won three of the last four conference titles, besting Buffalo once (2020) along the way.

The Cincinnati Bengals will also be among the top contenders for the conference title. Cincinnati has been to each of the last two AFC Championship games, winning once.

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Buffalo holds the second-best odds to win the conference.

To win AFC East (+120): Buffalo's odds to win the division are longer this year than they were a year ago. The Bills were -230 to take it all ahead of the 2022 campaign, but they now sit at +120 favourites.

That speaks to how competitive the AFC East is becoming.

Buffalo split the season series with the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets last season. Both made major splashes this offseason, with the Dolphins acquiring Jalen Ramsey from the Los Angeles Rams and the Jets landing Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers.

There's also the New England Patriots, of course, but they seem to be a distant fourth.

Best Bills futures bet

Bills to win the Super Bowl (+900)

This feels strange to say about a team that has the third-best odds to win it all, but Buffalo is starting to feel like a post-hype sleeper.

After being the toast of the offseason last year, there seems to be disinterest in the Bills entering this upcoming season. Their odds to win the Super Bowl have dropped 300 points (+600 to +900) from where they were in 2022 which is a pretty substantial dip for a team that hasn't seen much roster change.

Tremaine Edmunds' absence leaves a hole at middle linebacker, but that's not the worst position to be a little thin at.

Floyd, an outside linebacker, figures to have a larger defensive impact than Edmunds did, seeing as he has 29 sacks across the last three seasons and Edmunds only has three.

Leonard Floyd figures to be a big part of the Buffalo Bills' defence in 2023.

Buffalo also added Dalton Kincaid and O’Cyrus Torrence in the first two rounds of the NFL draft, a pair of additions that should help bolster the offence.

How you should fade the Bills

Bills over 10.5 wins (-159)

Buffalo has cruised past this total in each of the past three seasons with 37 total wins, but this isn't a wager we're looking to make.

That's mainly because the Bills have the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL this upcoming season, per Sharp Football. Their difficult schedule largely stems from their loaded division, with Miami and New York both boasting 9.5-game win totals and New England having a projected 7.5-game win total.

Buffalo also has the Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles and Chiefs on the schedule, making it a tough gauntlet for the team to run through.

With Miller likely missing time to begin the campaign, don't be shocked if this team is slow out of the gate before finding its stride over the second half of the season.

Bills betting preview: Player odds

Let's shift our attention to the player futures market.

Buffalo has some big names on its roster and we'll examine three of them in our Bills betting preview: Allen, Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis.

Josh Allen markets and best bet

Allen betting marketsOdds
Allen - 4,825.5 passing yardsOver (-112) or Under (-112)
Allen - 32.5 passing touchdownsOver (-112) or Under (-112)
Allen - 575.5 rushing yardsOver (-112) or Under (-112)
Allen - 6.5 rushing touchdownsOver (+101) or Under (-125)
Most passing touchdowns+550
To win MVP+800
Most passing yards+1,400
To win Offensive Player of the Year+3,000

NFL odds as of 1:08 p.m. on 08/16/2023.

Josh Allen Best Bet: To win MVP (+800)

Allen is a one-man offence and when you possess the dual-threat skills he has, you're going to be in the running for this award.

Even in a down season, Allen finished eighth in passing yards (4,283) while tying for second in passing touchdowns (35). He added another 762 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground.

Josh Allen has all of the tools to turn in an MVP-calibre season.

There's evidence suggesting that Allen's step back in key areas wasn't all on him. His receiving group was responsible for 35 drops in 2022, which was the second most in the NFL according to PlayerProfiler.

Allen was the favourite to win this award for the majority of last season, but there was a clear drop in his production after suffering a partial UCL tear against the Jets in Week 9. He was averaging 8.33 yards per attempt with 19 touchdowns to six interceptions in Weeks 1 through 8.

From Week 9 onward, he averaged 6.88 yards per attempt with 16 touchdowns to eight interceptions.

If he's healthy and posting jaw-dropping numbers like he was to open the 2023 campaign, Allen can surely take home this award.

Stefon Diggs markets and best bet

Diggs betting marketsOdds
Diggs - 8.5 receiving touchdownsOver (-125) or Under (+101)
Diggs - 1,200.5 receiving yardsOver (+100) or Under (-124)
Diggs - 96.5 receptionsOver (-112) or Under (-112)
Most touchdowns+1,000
Most receptions+1,500
Most receiving yards+2,000

NFL odds as of 1:08 p.m. on 08/16/2023.

Stefon Diggs Best Bet: Lead NFL in receiving yards (+2,000)

Diggs is a target monster and it wouldn't be surprising to look up and see him lead the league in receiving yards at the end of this season.

He managed to pull off this feat in 2020, after all, when he finished with 1,535 receiving yards. The 29-year-old paced the league in receptions (127) that season as well.

Buffalo didn't add much target competition this offseason. Kincaid, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty all figure to be complimentary pieces, but this offence will continue to centre around Diggs' playmaking ability.

Diggs is also coming off a very strong season where he finished top five in receiving yards (1,429), receptions (108) and touchdowns (11).

He's still among the top talents in the NFL and is more than capable of turning in an extraordinary campaign.

Gabriel Davis markets and best bet

Davis betting marketsOdds
Davis - 750.5 receiving yardsOver (-112) or Under (-112)
Davis - 48.5 receptionsOver (-112) or Under (-112)
Davis - 6.5 touchdownsOver (+100) or Under (-124)
Most receiving touchdowns+4,000

NFL odds as of 1:08 p.m. on 08/16/2023.

Gabe Davis Best Bet: Over 6.5 touchdowns (+100)

Davis dealt with a high-ankle sprain last season which he suffered early on. The issue held him out of the team's Week 2 contest and clearly impacted him for the rest of the year. He totalled 88 yards in Week 1 and topped that mark just twice the rest of the way.

Despite being hampered by a painful injury, Davis still finished the season with seven receiving touchdowns. He's cleared this mark in two of his three years in the league, and we're betting on him doing it again in his fourth campaign.

Gabriel Davis aims to put an injury-plagued season behind him.

The 24-year-old finished last season 22nd in red zone targets with 14, showing his involvement in the offence when the team gets close to the goal line.

The addition of Kincaid may take away some of those looks, but he'll be a regular in two wide receiver sets and that should help him get over this mark once again.

It helps that Davis plays on a Buffalo team that'll likely continue to be among the best offences in the league. The Bills averaged the third-most points per game (27.7) in the league last season.

Bills betting preview: The best player prop fade

Allen over 575.5 rushing yards (-112)

We're not necessarily looking to take the under on this wager, but we surely don't want any part of the over.

This might seem like a weird stance to take. Allen has rushed for 763 and 762 yards, respectively, in each of the last two seasons. On average, the Bills QB has topped this number by an average of 187 yards per season.

But there are two reasons why we're bearish about his prospects of doing so in 2023.

The first is comments he made earlier this offseason. For the first time since taking over as the starter, Allen remarked on how his physical play style may need to be tempered if he wants to achieve longevity in the league, according to ESPN's Alaina Getzenberg.

He also added that he's been "careless with the football, careless with my body," per NFL Network's Andrew Siciliano.

On top of that, there's also the development of second-year running back James Cook.

The 2022 second-round pick is drawing rave reviews in training camp, and the team could allow him to shoulder more of the load in his sophomore campaign in an effort to keep Allen fresh.

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