Celtics vs. Heat picks and odds, Game 6: Bet on Miami to close out the ECF at home
Miami is 6-1 at home this postseason. Photo by Wilfredo Lee/AP.

The Boston Celtics have staved off elimination yet again and now Saturday's Game 6 matchup feels like a must-win for the Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit in the NBA playoffs and despite the Celtics winning two straight, we don't think that will change now. The Heat have been largely stellar at home this postseason and we're expecting them to put this series to bed.

Here are our Celtics vs. Heat picks for Game 6 on May 27.

Celtics vs. Heat picks overview

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Game 6 ECF picksOddsBet now ⬇️
Parlay: Heat +9.5 & Over 203.5 points-110Pick 1 + Pick 2
Heat moneyline+125Add to betslip

NBA odds as of 2:30 p.m. on 05/22/2023.

Go to full Celtics/Heat betting markets.

Heat vs. Celtics picks

Best Bet: Heat +9.5 & over 203.5 points (-110)

It might seem tough to bet on the Heat after back-to-back games where they lost by double digits but we're confident they can steady the ship at home.

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Miami is 6-1 at Kaseya Center this postseason with the second-best home defensive rating (105.5) and third-best home net rating (+9.8). Sure, their loss to the Celtics in Game 4 was ugly but the Heat were legitimately flawless before that and home-court advantage can't be understated.

Erik Spoelstra's squad knows it has to win this game and we think it can get the job done — hence our Heat moneyline pick below. But we're going to tease Miami up to 9.5-point underdogs and parlay it with a teased down over in what we believe is a far safer play.

Game 6 boostsOddsBet now ⬇️
Celtics ML & over 213.5 points +290 (was +250)Add to betslip
Heat +3.5 & both teams to score 102+ points+265 (was +230)Add to betslip
Tatum & Butler to score 25+ points each-125 (was -167)Add to betslip

Miami has only lost three of its last 16 games by double-digits, two of which were on the road, so this number should be more than attainable, especially at home.

We're also very confident about the second half of this bet. This total has been cleared in four of the five Eastern Conference finals games and in seven of nine matchups between Boston and Miami dating back to the regular season.

Key stat: The over is 11-3 in Miami's last 14 home games and 11-3 in Boston's last 14 road games.

Quick pick

Heat moneyline (+125): In for a penny, in four a pound. Miami has a chance to punch its ticket to the NBA Finals at home and we doubt Jimmy Butler and Co. will let that opportunity slip by.

Things will be much easier for the Heat if Gabe Vincent can suit up. The 26-year-old point guard is averaging 17.5 PPG this series and missed Game 5 with an ankle injury but hasn't been ruled out for Saturday's match.

If he can't go, we're expecting Caleb Martin to see an increased offensive role with Kyle Lowry taking a step back. Regardless, Miami is 6-1 at home this postseason and was 27-14 at home during the regular season.

Miami also owns the fourth-best bounce-back percentage having won 62.8% of games following a loss this year (27-16).

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