NFL Week 1 ATS picks: Staff predictions for the beginning of the football season
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NorthStar Bets
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September 7, 2023

The NFL is back! The 2023 season kicks off September 7 with a date between the Detroit Lions and the defending Super Bowl champs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will look to continue where they left off before the year goes into full swing with a 14-game slate on Sunday. The week ends with an AFC East clash on Monday Night Football as Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills visit Aaron Rodgers and the new-look New York Jets.

Need help figuring out which teams to back against the spread? Our NFL Week 1 ATS picks have you covered.

NFL Week 1 ATS picks

NorthStar Bets' Jordan Horrobin, Avery Perri, Steven Psihogios and Chris Toman offer up their spread picks for all 16 games in Week 1.

NFL odds as of 1:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 7.

Click any linked pick to add selection to your betslip.

Go to full NFL betting markets.

Lions @ Chiefs: Thursday, Sept. 7: 8:20 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Kansas City -5
Horrobin says: Whether Travis Kelce plays or not, are we actually prepared to doubt Patrick Mahomes? He’s 5-0 as a Week 1 starter, covering this line in four of five games. This could be a shootout, but I'd much prefer to stand on the side of the reigning MVP rather than Jared Goff.
Pick: Chiefs -5

Cardinals @ Commanders: Sunday, Sept. 10: 1 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Washington -7
Horrobin says: The Cardinals’ quarterback room is in shambles, as starter Josh Dobbs only got to town a couple of weeks ago. Washington had the third-ranked total defence last year, and that unit should be salivating with the chance to start 2023 strong at home.
Pick: Commanders -7

Panthers @ Falcons: Sunday, Sept. 10: 1 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Atlanta -3.5
Psihogios says: Desmond Ridder only threw a touchdown pass in one of his four games last season, making it fair to wonder if he's an NFL-calibre quarterback. The Falcons figure to be a slow, run-heavy offence yet again after finishing second in run-play percentage (55.3%). This should be a low-scoring game and one that Carolina should keep up in with new QB Bryce Young under centre.
Pick: Panthers +3.5

Bengals @ Browns: Sunday, Sept. 10: 1 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Cincinnati -2.5
Perri says: Joe Burrow hasn’t had much success against the Browns in his career but that doesn't worry me. The Bengals went on a 10-game winning streak before losing to the Chiefs in a razor-thin AFC championship game and they covered a 2.5-point spread in each of those victories. Cleveland is in do-or-die mode with Deshaun Watson at the helm and he wildly disappointed in a small sample last season (16.3 PPG, 298.0 YPG). 
Pick: Bengals -2.5

Joe Burrow is good to go for Week 1 after suffering a calf injury in training out. Photo by Jeff Dean.

Texans @ Ravens: Sunday, Sept. 10: 1 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Baltimore -10
Perri says: The Ravens are the only double-digit favourite in Week 1 but that’s not going to stop me from backing them at home. Baltimore’s ground attack should carve up a Houston defence that allowed the most rushing yards per game (170.2) last season. As for Houston, throwing rookie C.J. Stroud into the fire against this defence on the road could get very, very ugly.
Pick: Ravens -10

Jaguars @ Colts: Sunday, Sept. 10: 1 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Jacksonville -5
Horrobin says: Anthony Richardson will be thrown into the fire in Week 1, lacking a star-calibre running back (Jonathan Taylor) behind an offensive line that took a huge step back in 2022. Don’t expect Richardson to keep up with the Jaguars' offence, which ranked 10th in scoring last year and added Calvin Ridley to the fold.
Pick: Jaguars -5

49ers @ Steelers: Sunday, Sept. 10: 1 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: San Francisco -2
Perri says: The Steelers’ offseason hype train will be put to an immediate test against a Niners team fresh off an NFC championship appearance. That said, I think Pittsburgh is well-equipped for the task. Kenny Pickett and Co. looked sharp this preseason, the defence is still elite and Mike Tomlin’s ATS record as a home dog (16-4-3) speaks for itself. We’re also not sold on Brock Purdy coming off a UCL surgery. 
Pick: Steelers +2

Buccaneers @ Vikings: Sunday, Sept. 10: 1 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Minnesota -5.5
Psihogios says: Tampa Bay lost Tom Brady this offseason, but the defence remains solid. Stars like Vita Vea, Devin White, Lavonte David and Shaquil Barrett are all still there and should make like difficult for most opponents. Baker Mayfield has quality receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to sling the ball to with intriguing sophomore Rachaad White handling backfield duties. The Bucs have enough talent to give Minnesota a game.
Pick: Buccaneers +5.5

Titans @ Saints: Sunday, Sept. 10: 1 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: New Orleans -3.5
Psihogios says: Tennessee is a team I want no part of in 2023. Ryan Tannehill dealt with injuries last season and he’s playing behind an offensive line that’s among the worst in the NFL. The Titans fell apart at the end of the 2022 campaign and I’m expecting that to carry over into this year. New Orleans upgraded at QB this offseason with the addition of Derek Carr and I’m expecting a bounce-back season out of him.
Pick: Saints -3.5

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NFL Week 1 ATS picks: The late slate

Packers @ Bears: Sunday, Sept. 10: 4:25 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Chicago -1
Horrobin says: Aaron Rodgers may have owned the Bears, but we think Justin Fields can put in a claim for repossession. Fields has a proper WR1 now (D.J. Moore), while the Packers' youthful receiving corps is riddled with injuries leading up to the game. This is basically a pick'em, and we're picking the home team.
Pick: Bears -1

Raiders @ Broncos: Sunday, Sept. 10: 4:25 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Denver -4
Perri says: Backing the Broncos with Russell Wilson under centre is a tough ask considering how bad they were last season. But I’m using some selective memory to justify this pick. Denver is at home and its defence is still one of the league’s best. Sean Payton is a seismic coaching upgrade over Nathaniel Hackett and also holds an edge over Josh McDaniels, who probably would’ve been fired in 2022 if Las Vegas wasn’t cash-strapped. 
Pick: Broncos -4

Russell Wilson will look for a bounce-back year in his second season with the Broncos. Photo by Patrick Semansky/AP.

Rams @ Seahawks: Sunday, Sept. 10: 4:25 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Seattle -5.5
Psihogios says: Los Angeles has one of the worst rosters in the NFL. Its offensive line is horrendous and its defence lacks talent outside of Aaron Donald. Cooper Kupp’s absence puts a lot of pressure on a wide receiver room that doesn’t have much depth. Seattle has one of the best receiving trios in the league with the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and shouldn’t have any problem putting points on the board.
Pick: Seahawks -5.5

Dolphins @ Chargers: Sunday, Sept. 10: 4:25 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -3
Psihogios says: It’s a good thing we’re getting this game in Week 1 as both teams seem to be routinely bit by the injury bug. There are few teams on paper more talented than the Chargers, whose defensive stars Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack and Derwin James Jr. make them the more complete team. I’ll take Justin Herbert at home to get the job done against a Dolphins team he beat 23-17 last season.
Pick: Chargers -3

Eagles @ Patriots: Sunday, Sept. 10: 4:25 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Philadelphia -4
Perri says: This line seems disrespectful, to say the least. The Eagles were dominant in all phases of the game last season, ranking top 10 in passing offence, rushing offence, scoring offence and scoring defence. New England was a mess on the offensive side of the ball and bringing in Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator and JuJu Smith-Schuster as WR1 won’t be enough to fix that.
Pick: Eagles -4

Cowboys @ Giants: Sunday, Sept. 10: 8:20 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Dallas -3.5
Toman says: Dallas covered this number both times it played New York last season and there's plenty to like about the team going into the year. But the same can be said for the division rival Giants, who also made the playoffs. Daniel Jones took a big leap last season and got some major help in the passing game with tight end Darren Waller. This is too many points to give a good Giants team at home.
Pick: Giants +3.5

Bills @ Jets: Monday, Sept. 11: 8:15 p.m.

NorthStar Bets line: Buffalo -2.5
Horrobin says: Buffalo has covered this number in five of its past six games against New York, with Josh Allen manning the controls in all of those games. The Jets didn’t have Aaron Rodgers yet, mind you, but Rodgers was a shell of himself in 2022 and could finally be on the decline.
Pick: Bills -2.5

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