No sport in North America is bet on more than the NFL. And no event sees more wagers than the Super Bowl, which caps off the league’s season in February each year.
The NFL is king when it comes to betting, creating action throughout the week with games on Monday and Thursday in addition to the leadup to the big Sunday slate.
There are many ways to bet on the NFL. The point spread is the most common, but there are several other markets, including player props, that attract a high volume of wagers.
How to bet on the NFL
For those new or in need of a refresher, this NFL betting guide will run you through the markets that football-loving bettors like to wager on.
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Moneyline betting
Wagering on the moneyline isn’t as popular among NFL bettors as it is for leagues like the NHL and MLB, but it’s still part of the NFL betting experience.
A moneyline bet is straightforward: It requires you to pick the team you think will win the game. If you like the Bills to beat the Dolphins and place a wager on it, that’s a moneyline bet.
Each team will come with its own set of odds based on its probability of winning that specific contest. The odds will ultimately determine the potential payout.
A team that is favoured will have a minus (-) sign before its odds, while the underdog will have a plus (+) sign.
Team success of course plays a major role in determining which club is assigned as the favourite.
Other factors include which team is home and the health of the roster. Missing key players will have an impact on the odds.
Quarterbacks, specifically, can swing the lines considerably.
Let’s say QB Josh Allen was unable to play in that hypothetical Bills/Dolphins matchup, Buffalo would likely go from a short favourite to an underdog.
With a healthy Allen at home, the Bills might be -140 favourites. But without him, they could flip to a +200 underdog. A swing like that is monumental for bettors.
Moneyline odds vary considerably between matchups and every week there are large favourites that see odds of -600 or higher. At those odds, a team would have an 85 percent implied probability of winning that matchup.
Here’s an example of the return you would make depending on the odds:
| Odds | Wager | To win |
| -140 | $140 | $100 |
| -600 | $600 | $100 |
| +130 | $100 | $130 |
Unless you’re backing an underdog to win straight up — a low-probability outcome — there's bigger payout potential by betting the spread.
Note: You will also see the moneyline referred to as ML for short.
Point spread betting
Betting on the point spread is the most common wager made by NFL gamblers.
A point spread is a number assigned by sportsbooks that a team either has to win by or can lose by. These numbers vary depending on the matchup, whether a team is at home and if a key player is injured.
Let’s go back to that hypothetical Bills and Dolphins matchup and say Buffalo is at home and Allen is healthy. It would be reasonable to assume that the Bills would be favoured by 3.5 points. If you selected them to cover that spread, it would mean that they would have to win by at least four points.
If you backed the Dolphins on the spread, however, they could lose and you would win your bet as long as they weren’t defeated by more than three points.
Under this scenario, you would see the Bills listed at -3.5 and the Dolphins at +3.5. Most lines are set at odds of -110 for both sides of the spread, which creates action on both teams.
One thing to note about the point spread is that it often changes throughout the week. Opening lines come out early (typically Sunday night once the majority of games that week have been played) but it can look much different by the time the game starts at the end of the week.
This can be a result of player availability. But it also could change depending on how many bettors are favouring a particular side. If a majority backs Miami +3.5, it could move to Bills -3 or -2.5 to create more action on Buffalo.
Like other sports, there are alternative spreads as well.
You can buy more points, meaning you could take the Bills at -6.5 and see your odds change to something like +120. You could pay more and pick them to only have to cover a -2.5 spread at say -160.
How to bet on the NFL: Totals
Totals are also highly popular among NFL bettors. When you wager on the total, you are betting on how many points will be scored in a game.
Sportsbooks will set a number and you decide whether the two teams will score more or fewer points. You will also see totals referred to as the over/under or O/U. All three terms are interchangeable.
Most totals for a game are between 40-50 points. Some, like a game involving Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs against another high-powered offence, will approach the mid-50s.
Like point spreads, -110 odds are the standard on totals for both the over and under.
Also like point spreads, you can bet on alternative totals as well.
You can wager on team-specific totals and place a bet on how many points you think each team will score. The total would be lower than the game total because only one team’s output would matter for this bet type.
Prop betting
Player props involve betting on individual outcomes in a game. The prop market is robust, giving bettors plenty of ways to wager on a game in addition to the spread, total and moneyline.
Let’s use the Bills again as an example and run through some common props that are available each game.
There are a number of different quarterback props listed every week. You can wager on a QB's touchdowns, completions and yards. You'll be offered a total and you can select whether he will go over or under that number.
These types of over/under props are also available for running backs and receivers. Common props you will see for these players centre around their yards totals, receptions, and rushing attempts.
Anytime touchdown props are also popular, where you can wager on a player scoring a TD for that particular game.
There are also markets for team and game props. These can include over/unders on the total amount of touchdowns or field goals for the contest.
How to bet on NFL futures
The futures market involves betting on outcomes that will happen at a later time. This is a great way to bet if you’re willing to play the long game and find good value.
Among the more popular NFL futures markets is picking the Super Bowl champion. You can do this well before the season starts or enter the market in-season.
Super Bowl odds are constantly changing due to team performance and injuries. They will change once again when the playoff field is set and there are only a select amount of teams that even have a chance to win.
A team could open at +1,500 to win the Super Bowl but be +750 once the playoffs start. There's obviously risk betting far away from the Super Bowl, as the team you select may not even make it. But it’s when you will find the most value and increase your chances for a larger payout.
You can also wager on team win totals, division winners and season-long player props.
Betting on season-long awards is another way to enter the futures market. You can wager on the MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and so on.
Parlays
A parlay consists of making multiple bets on a single ticket. You make one wager and every bet on that parlay must win in order for a bettor to cash their ticket. You could predict the correct outcome of four different games but if the fifth was incorrect, you would lose the parlay.
Parlays can be a combination of moneylines, spreads, totals and player props. Each bet is called a leg.
An example of an NFL parlay looks like this:
•Buffalo -3.5 (-110)
•Ja'Marr Chase over 6.5 receptions (-118)
•Bears vs. Packers under 50.5 (-110)
Combined odds = +574. If you predicted all three outcomes correctly, you would win $574 (a total payout of $674) on a $100 bet.
A parlay has to have at least two bets attached to the same ticket but can have many more. Keep in mind: The more bets you add to a single ticket decreases your likelihood of winning. But parlays are attractive to some because the payouts are bigger than a single-game wager.
At NorthStar Bets, you can also make a same-game parlay bet. This means you can combine a moneyline, over/under and player prop from the same game.
For example, you could bet on Buffalo to win, the total to go over 45.5 points and for Allen to throw for 300-plus yards.
Live NFL betting
Live betting provides users with options to bet on games after they start as they play out in real time. Among the markets you can bet on are the moneyline, over/under and point spread. You can also make in-game bets on player props.
Once the game starts, these lines can quickly look different from what they were set at before play started.
The Bills, for example, may have closed as a -3.5, -145 favourite against Miami with an over/under set at 44.5. But those lines could move fast if either team got out to a quick lead.
Let’s say it was Miami that got ahead early, going up 10-0 within the first few minutes of the game. The Dolphins would then surely become the favourite on the moneyline and spread and the O/U would soar past that 44.5 mark because of the amount of early scoring.
If you still liked the Bills to win, you would then be able to bet on them as an underdog.
That’s just one example. Odds are constantly changing throughout the game — certainly after a score and even a change of possession. Buffalo could quickly become the favourite again and end your chance to get them as a plus-money underdog.
While markets remain open throughout a game, they will close from time to time based on a number of factors. These include timeouts and injuries, or a team increasing its odds of scoring by entering the red zone.
