Maple Leafs vs. Wild picks and odds: Back Toronto and the under Friday afternoon
Toronto is on the road in Minnesota for a rare afternoon tilt Friday. Photo by Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press.

The Toronto Maple Leafs play their second of four consecutive road games against the Minnesota Wild on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Both of these teams are playing low-event hockey, which certainly puts the under in play. We’re also betting on Toronto to win and keep the Wild to a low goal total.

Check out our Maple Leafs vs. Wild picks for November 25.

Maple Leafs vs. Wild picks overview

Maple Leafs vs. Wild picksOddsBet now ⬇️
Under 6.5 goals-115Add to betslip
Toronto moneyline-115Add to betslip
Wild under 3 goals - regular time-127Add to betslip

Odds as of 8:54 p.m. ET on 11/24/2022.

Go to full Maple Leafs/Wild betting markets.

Maple Leafs vs. Wild picks

Best Bet: Under 6.5 goals (-115)

Toronto and Minnesota ranked second and fifth, respectively, in goals last season, but it’s been a different story in 2022-23.

The Maple Leafs sit 22nd in goals per game (2.90) and the Wild are tied for 23rd (2.84).

Minnesota ranks 31st in the league in high-danger chances per 60 across the last two weeks with 9.5, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Maple Leafs aren’t much better, placing 21st with 11.35 over the same time period.

Maple Leafs vs. Wild boostOddsBet now ⬇️
Leafs to win & Matthews to score+235 (was +195)Add to betslip

Both teams have been stingy defensively, though. Minnesota’s allowing the second-fewest high-danger chances per 60 across the last 14 days with 9.67, while Toronto is surrendering the eighth fewest.

Goaltending, unsurprisingly, hasn’t been an issue for either squad during that stretch. The Wild have the NHL's third-best save percentage (.930) over the last two weeks, while the Maple Leafs are eighth (.921).

The under on this total has hit in eight of Minnesota’s last 10 games and in five of Toronto’s last seven. We like it to cash again Friday afternoon.

Key stat: The Maple Leafs own the second-best under percentage (69.1) in the NHL this season.

Quick picks

Maple Leafs moneyline (-115): Minnesota’s surprisingly poor results at home this year have us looking to bet on Toronto. The Wild have won just four of 10 home games this season and have a minus-four goal differential at Xcel Energy Center. 

The Maple Leafs have generated high-danger chances at a greater rate (50.96%) than the Wild (49.57%) over the last two weeks and have also won four of their last six, including three consecutive road games.

Wild under 3 goals - regular time (-127): Toronto’s combination of solid defence and quality goaltending make this a bet we’re interested in.

The Maple Leafs have held their opponents to three or fewer regulation goals in 11 of their last 12. The Wild have also gone under this number in four of their last six games.

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.