Odds to win NBA MVP: Does Giannis have value as a dark horse candidate?
Antetokounmpo has 50-to-1 odds to win MVP. Photo by Bruce Kluckhohn/AP.

Nikola Jokic is on the hunt for his third NBA MVP award in four seasons.

The latest: Jokic, who finished runner-up last year after earning MVP honours in the two previous seasons, is the heavy odds-on favourite to come out on top. Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander follow, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is an intriguing dark horse.

Check out the latest NBA MVP odds.

NBA MVP odds

Check out the latest odds to win NBA MVP. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.

Best odds to win NBA MVP

The favourite: Nikola Jokic (-835)

The NBA season still has three weeks remaining, but if it ended today, Jokic would almost surely snag another MVP award.

It's hard to argue against the Joker when he's averaging 26.1 points, 12.3 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game entering play on March 25.

On a more advanced level, he paces the league in Player Impact Estimate (21.0), Value Over Replacement Player (9.1) and Plus/Minus (+13.3).

Jokic has always been an impressive all-around stat stuffer, but his scoring numbers did dip a bit last year — and that might've been the cause of him losing out on a third consecutive MVP.

Now, Jokic is valuing quantity over quality as a shooter. He's attempting 2.9 shots more than a season ago and scoring an additional 1.6 points per game.

Jokic's scoring prowess still pales in comparison to some of the league's other top stars, but his other contributions more than make up for that.

Other NBA MVP choices

Best value: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+5,000)

Jokic will probably run away with this award ... but at these odds, Giannis might be worth a look.

The Greek Freak just passed Gilgeous-Alexander for second place in Basketball Refrence's MVP tracker and holds a 12.5% probability of taking home the honours.

These +5,000 odds equate to a measly 2.0% implied probability, so there's baked-in value here.

But what about the numbers? Well, those are pretty good too.

Giannis is averaging the second-most points per game (30.7) and the sixth-most rebounds (11.3) while shooting a stellar 61.6% from the field. He ranks third in Player Impact Estimate and win shares, too.

But the narrative is that Giannis performs at his best against the other top candidates.

He holds a 4-1 record against Jokic, SGA and Doncic and is averaging 36.6 points and 14.0 rebounds in those games.

NBA MVP notes

  • Doncic paces the league in scoring (34.1) and is third in assists (9.8). He recorded six straight 30-point triple-doubles from Feb. 29-March 9 while averaging 36.3 PPG.
  • Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging the third-most points per game (30.5) and ranks second in offensive win shares (9.9). But the Canadian's scoring has dipped in March and his odds have lengthened as a result.
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