For Sunday's NBA prop picks, we're focused on games taking place in the late afternoon and onward.
The pregame narrative: Trey Murphy has yet to dominate the Houston Rockets, but his recent form gives us faith that he can clear his points line for tonight. Also, Franz Wagner has some solid value as a passer and Jimmy Butler should post above-average rebounding numbers against the Pistons.
Find all our best NBA props picks for March 19 below.
NBA prop picks overview
| NBA prop picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Murphy over 14.5 points | -121 | NOP/HOU markets |
| Wagner over 3.5 assists | +116 | ORL/LAL markets |
| Butler over 6.5 rebounds | -125 | MIA/DET markets |
NBA odds as of 12:00 p.m. ET on 03/19/2023.
Go to full NBA betting markets.
NBA prop picks
Best Bet: Murphy over 14.5 points (-121)
We're catching Murphy at a really good time against a really weak opponent. That seems like a good mix, doesn't it?
The second-year small forward has cleared this line in six of his past seven games, averaging 19.6 points per game in that span. And sure, that scoring average is inflated by his absurd 41-point effort in under 30 minutes last Sunday, but we're certainly not holding it against him.
| Raptors boost March 19 | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Raptors +6.5 and Giannis to score 35+ points | +690 (was +550) | Add to betslip |
If anything, that type of efficiency tells us Murphy is capable of clearing this line even in a minutes-restricted blowout. Not that we expect that from a Pelicans team that just lost to Houston two nights ago — but good to know just in case.
In two starts against Houston this year, Murphy has fallen just short of this line both times (14 points on Jan. 4; 13 points on March 12).
We're still bullish on his opportunity amid a hot streak, though, especially against a Rockets team that allows 118.1 points per game (26th in the NBA).
Key stat: Houston allows 23.1 points per game to opposing small forwards, which is the fourth-most in the NBA, per FantasyPros.
Quick picks
Wagner over 3.5 assists (+116): This line mirrors Wagner's season average, and we feel there's reason to like the plus-money side of this prop tonight.
For one thing, Wagner tallied four assists against the Lakers in his only previous meeting with them this season (Dec. 27). And the Lakers are a pretty neutral matchup in terms of assists, as they allow 25.6 per game (15th in the NBA).
Wagner has cleared this total in five of his past seven games, averaging 4.1 feeds in that span.
Butler over 6.5 rebounds (-125): Butler averages 6.1 rebounds per game, so we're asking for a bit more than his usual output. But recent results and a plus matchup are working in our favour.
The Pistons rank 23rd in rebounding rate (49.3%) while allowing the seventh-most rebounds per game (44.8) to opponents. As for Butler, he's gone over this line in six of his past nine games, averaging 7.4 rebounds in that span.
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