The best bets to make for each NFL team this season
A healthy Lamar Jackson gives the Ravens a good shot at competing for the AFC North title. Photo by Julio Cortez/AP.

If you look in the right place, you can find betting value on every NFL team.

Between awards futures, team win totals, season-long yardage props and more, we're providing our top wager to make for each of the league's 32 teams.

Check our NFL best bets ahead of the upcoming football season.

NFL best bets for the 2023 season

Our staff writers — Jordan Horrobin, Steven Psihogios and Avery Perri — are beginning their NFL best bets with the AFC, which features the defending Super Bowl champs, the Buffalo Bills and 14 other teams looking to make noise.

Note: Click each linked pick to add it directly to your betslip.

NFL best bets: AFC East

Buffalo Bills (Psihogios): Buffalo seems to be getting lost in the shuffle when discussing the league's true Super Bowl contenders. The Bills didn't have a flashy offseason but continuity can be key and no team is returning more of its roster from 2022. Josh Allen is among the game's elite quarterbacks, Von Miller's return will help the defence and so will the addition of Leonard Floyd.
Pick: Bills to win the Super Bowl (+900)

Miami Dolphins (Perri): Jaylen Waddle blew by this total last season, amassing 1,356 receiving yards (seventh in the NFL) and he only had a healthy Tua Tagovailoa under centre in 12 of those contests. Waddle is on an upward trend — back him to record his third straight 1,000-yard season, and then some.
Pick: Waddle over 1075.5 receiving yards (+105)

New England Patriots (Perri): After two decades of dominance, it's looking like Bill Belichick and the Patriots are destined for the basement in a stacked AFC East. The offence owned the worst red zone conversion rate in football last season and simply doesn't have the personnel to keep up with the rest of the teams in this division.
Pick: To finish last in AFC East (-125)

New York Jets (Horrobin): Aaron Rodgers posted career lows in QB rating (91.1), passing yards per game (217.4) and air yards per attempt (6.8) last season. Someday he’ll be immortalized in Canton, but until then, the 39-year-old runs the risk of looking more human. A rebound from Rodgers wouldn’t be a surprise, but would it be enough to overcome a daunting AFC East? I think not.
Pick: To miss the playoffs (+100)

Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets are +100 to miss the playoffs. Photo by Adam Hunger/AP.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals (Horrobin): It often comes ugly, but Joe Mixon is a volume-reliant rusher who usually gets more touches than he deserves. Despite missing three games last year, Mixon clawed his way to 814 rush yards on 3.9 yards per carry. Samaje Perine has moved on, so Mixon should continue to command the lion's share of carries ahead of three inexperienced rushers.
Pick: Mixon over 800.5 rushing yards (-112)

Baltimore Ravens (Psihogios): Lamar Jackson is back and has weapons on offence. Mark Andrews will remain his top target, but Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers fill out a wide receiver room that has been short on talent in recent years. The defence is still loaded and will likely turn in another quality season. Baltimore was 8-4 before an injury kept Jackson sidelined for the season.
Pick: Ravens to win the AFC North (+240)

Pittsburgh Steelers (Perri): Pittsburgh was so close to making the playoffs last season but lost out on a tiebreak. But I'm extremely bullish that the Steelers get into the dance this year. Their defence is among the league's best and the offence looks poised to take the next step. Kenny Pickett showed out in the preseason and has a stable of elite skill position players to target behind a re-tooled O-line.
Pick: To make the playoffs (+140)

Cleveland Browns (Horrobin): Nick Chubb’s floor is remarkably high, and his opportunities in the red zone should only increase in the absence of Kareem Hunt. Last year, Chubb received 42 of 89 red zone carries (47.2%), while Hunt had 29. Chubb has recorded eight-plus rushing TDs in each of his five seasons, including a staggering 32 in his past three years.
Pick: Chubb over 8.5 rushing TDs (-125)

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars (Psihogios): Jacksonville broke out during last season's second half, finishing the year on a 6-1 run en route to a division title. Trevor Lawrence was exceptional down the stretch, only throwing two interceptions across his final nine games. The Jaguars have an easier schedule, unlike other AFC contenders, which could land them a higher seed than expected.
Pick: Jaguars to win the AFC (+1,400)

Tennessee Titans (Psihogios): Fading Tennessee is the move. The offensive line is brutal, the defence is thoroughly underwhelming and there are plenty of concerns surrounding Ryan Tannehill. The veteran QB dealt with a pair of ankle sprains last season and his 49.1 QBR from 2022 was his lowest mark since joining the Titans. The O-line won’t keep him upright or create holes for Derrick Henry.
Pick: Titans under 7.5 wins (-104)

Indianapolis Colts (Horrobin): Anthony Richardson's rushing yards prop is sky high, as only three rookie QBs have ever cleared it (Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson). But Richardson rushed for 654 yards in 12 college games last year, and the other backfield options are suspect. Jonathan Taylor is already set to miss at least Weeks 1-4, so the highway should be wide open for the first-rounder to tuck and run.
Pick: Richardson over 650.5 rushing yards (-112)

Houston Texans (Horrobin): Against their own best interests last season, the Texans earned a one-point victory over the Colts in Week 18 to cost themselves the No. 1 pick. That also meant they bumbled their way to a 3-2-1 divisional record despite a minus-22 point differential in those games. With a rookie QB and a hapless defence, don't expect lightning to strike twice for Houston.
Pick: Under 2.5 divisional games won (-125)

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (Horrobin): In the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs have won two Super Bowls, five division titles and been to the AFC championship five times. Kansas City has 12-plus wins in all five of Mahomes’ years at the helm, too. We expect more of the same from the reigning champs.
Pick: Over 11.5 wins (-130)

Los Angeles Chargers (Psihogios): Betting on the Chiefs to win this division again (-190) doesn't come at an appealing price. Justin Herbert enters this season fully healthy and continuity is a major plus for the Chargers as 75% of the team is back from 2022 (fourth-most in the NFL). Los Angeles routinely deals with injuries but a healthy squad can challenge K.C.
Pick: Chargers to win the AFC West (+300)

Las Vegas Raiders (Perri): Maxx Crosby was a bright spot last season, securing a career-high 12.5 sacks and ranking third in QB pressures (81). He was the only defensive lineman to play 1,000-plus snaps and that type of durability is huge for a market like this. The fifth-year edge rusher is entering his prime and plays opposite Chandler Jones, which alleviates plenty of pressure. Expect him to feast again.
Pick: Crosby over 11.5 sacks (+115)

Denver Broncos (Perri): Even in Denver's disastrous Russell Wilson-led offence, Courtland Sutton managed 829 yards over 15 games. He's cleared this mark in each of his past three full seasons and the offence should be better under former Saints head coach Sean Payton.
Pick: Sutton over 750.5 receiving yards (-124)

NFL best bets: The NFC

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (Perri): Philadelphia didn't win the Super Bowl last season but it may have been the league's most well-rounded team. The Birds ranked top 10 in both rushing and receiving yards, scored the third-most points per game, allowed the eighth-fewest points per game, and forced the fourth-most turnovers. Somehow the league let Howie Roseman draft three more Georgia Bulldogs on defence.
Pick: Eagles to win NFC East (-125)

Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles are the favourites to win the NFC East. Photo by Nick Wass/AP.

Dallas Cowboys (Psihogios): CeeDee Lamb is one of a handful of wide receivers who can push Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson for the title of WR1. Lamb ranked sixth in receiving yards, tied for fifth in receptions, tied for sixth in touchdowns and finished fourth in targets. The addition of Brandin Cooks will prevent defences from keying in on him, which will boost his efficiency. He's got more to offer as he enters his fourth season.
Pick: Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Year (+5,000)

New York Giants (Psihogios): Saquon Barkley is one of few bell-cow running backs still roaming in the NFL. He set his single-season high for rushing yards (1,312) in 2022 and we're expecting him to build on that in 2023. The Giants revolve their offence around the tailback and he should have more room to operate with more playmakers in the offence like Darren Waller, Jalin Hyatt and Parris Campbell.
Pick: Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year (+3,000)

Washington Commanders (Perri): The Commanders probably won't be competitive for the next few seasons in this division but that doesn't mean the team lacks talent. Jahan Dotson was tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (seven) among rookies last year despite playing just 12 games. He's a red-zone menace who built an impressive preseason rapport with Sam Howell, who should be an upgrade over the likes of Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke.
Pick: Dotson over 4.5 touchdowns (-106)

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings (Perri): The Vikings are coming off a 13-win season that saw them post a minus-3 point differential. But they did beat the 3-14 Bears by at least a touchdown both times they met. The Bears haven't gotten much better and the Vikings have won four in a row against their NFC North rival. I love the value on Minnesota extending that streak to six.
Pick: To go 2-0 against the Chicago Bears (+195)

Detroit Lions (Horrobin): The Lions stormed to a 5-1 finish at the end of the 2022 season, which added plenty of coal to the hype train. And a one-win improvement on last season — with a couple of promising rookies on both sides of the ball — shouldn't be too much to ask for a team that's favoured to win the NFC North.
Pick: To go 2-0 vs. Bears (+195)

Green Bay Packers (Horrobin): Jordan Love is an inexperienced QB who will be throwing to a bunch of inexperienced receivers. And it’s not as if the other side of the ball is expected to prop up the team — last year’s defence finished 17th in both scoring and total yards. In the Packers' path to bottoming out, the Bears could stand in the way. But at least Chicago added a true WR1 in the offseason (D.J. Moore).
Pick: To finish fourth in NFC North (+160)

Chicago Bears (Horrobin): Perhaps Justin Fields won't repeat his 1,143-yard rushing season — the second-most single-season yards for a QB in league history — but he can regress almost 300 yards and still hit this over. David Montgomery, who led the Bears with 201 carries last year, skipped town. And his replacement, Khalil Herbert, has never topped 160 carries as a collegian or pro.
Pick: Fields over 850.5 rushing yards (+100)

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (Psihogios): Desmond Ridder started four games for the Falcons in 2022 and only threw a touchdown pass in one of them. He’ll get the first crack at starting this year but Atlanta signed veteran journeyman Taylor Heinicke this offseason, and he'll be waiting for the second-year pro to slip up. Only one team last season ran the ball more often than Atlanta, which will once again centre the offence around the rushing attack.
Pick: Ridder under 15.5 passing touchdowns (-124)

Carolina Panthers (Perri): This line feels a little disrespectful. There's an element of luck when it comes to securing interceptions but Jaycee Horn cleared this line as a sophomore in just 13 games last season. He only played in three games during his rookie campaign due to injury but still managed one INT, too. The man is a ballhawk and I'll gladly bet on him to keep improving.
Pick: Horn over 2.5 interceptions (+113)

New Orleans Saints (Psihogios): New Orleans has the best odds to win its division (+130), but that’s because the NFC South is abysmal. The Saints have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL, per Sharp Football, meaning they’ll likely win more games than most expect. But when the playoffs roll around and they have to play a top contender, we’re not expecting this team to do much.
Pick: Saints to lose in wild-card round (+225)

Derek Carr joined the New Orleans Saints in free agency this offseason. Photo by Gerald Herbert/AP.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Psihogios): Below-average arm strength has never stopped Baker Mayfield from slinging the ball all over the field. The new Bucs QB is taking over for Tom Brady and will lead an offence that figures to be trailing in most games. Mayfield will be forcing the ball to his top targets, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and likely throwing plenty of interceptions behind an offensive line that’ll be missing stalwart Ryan Jensen. Mayfield has 64 INTs in 72 games.
Pick: Mayfield to lead the NFL in interceptions (+2,500)

NFL best bets: NFC West

San Francisco 49ers (Psihogios): The 49ers haven’t had a great offseason. They didn’t have many draft picks due to the Christian McCaffrey trade, Brock Purdy spent this time recovering from a torn UCL, Trey Lance was a waste of multiple draft picks and Nick Bosa continues to hold out for a new contract. The Seahawks are ascending and appear ready to pass San Francisco for first in the division.
Pick: 49ers to finish second in the NFC West (+250)

Seattle Seahawks (Perri): The Seahawks look like clear winners of the Wilson trade. They rallied to a playoff spot last season behind elite quarterback play by Geno Smith and snagged the No. 5 overall in the process. The offence is loaded with talent and the defence addressed some major issues through free agency and the draft. Pete Carroll has led this team to the playoffs in nine of the last 11 seasons.
Pick: Seahawks to make the playoffs (-125)

L.A. Rams (Horrobin): Cooper Kupp missed half of last year due to injury, and he's batting a hamstring injury as the season approaches. Fading him and his 35-year-old, injury-prone QB seems like the smart way to go. Kupp did have a magical 2021 season (1,947 yards in 17 games), but he's fallen short of this line in each of his other five years in the league.
Pick: Kupp under 1,225.5 receiving yards (-121)

Arizona Cardinals (Horrobin): With Kyler Murray on the PUP list and Colt McCoy getting a surprise pink slip, the Cardinals are left with Clayton Tune (a fifth-round rookie) and Josh Dobbs (brought in via trade on Aug. 24). Things will likely start ugly and remain that way. Arizona is a 7-point dog in Week 1 vs. Washington and our best estimate is that it won’t be favoured until Week 6 (at Rams) at the earliest.
Pick: Last winless team (+400)

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