First NFL coach to leave this season odds: Bet on Browns' Kevin Stefanski to be fired. 
The Browns went 7-10 last season. Photo by John Amis/AP.

The NFL is a cutthroat business, and by this time next year the head coaching landscape will look very different.

The latest: Josh McDaniels holds the shortest odds to join the unemployment line and Mike McCarthy is right behind him. But we think Kevin Stefanski and the Cleveland Browns are destined for a messy divorce.

Here are the latest NFL first coach to leave odds.

NFL first coach to leave odds

Check out the latest odds to win NFL first coach to leave. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.

Josh McDaniels+500
Ron Rivera+800
Mike McCarthy+800
Dennis Allen+1,000
Todd Bowles+1,000
Brandon Staley+1,200
Kevin Stefanski+1,500
Arthur Smith+2,000
Matt Eberflus+2,000
Matt Lafleur+2,000
Sean McVay+2,500
Jonathan Gannon+2,500
Mike Vrabel+2,500

NFL odds as of 1:25 p.m. on 08/12/2023.

Top first coach to leave odds

The favourite: McDaniels (+500)

This isn't the type of market you want to be favoured in. McDaniels is coaching a truly awful team meaning he should hypothetically be on the hot seat from the get-go.

That said, he wasn't let go after a disasterous 2022 season and we can't see the Las Vegas Raiders' ownership group changing their tune when they're knowingly trotting out a far worse roster.

Also, the team was reportedly unable to fire McDaniels last year due to being cash-strapped, so there's that.

Name to watch: McCarthy (+800)

McCarthy is an interesting name to see here because the Dallas Cowboys should be a solid team.

They've gone 12-5 in each of the past two seasons under his leadership and hold the sixth-shortest Super Bowl odds (+1,500).

Barring an absolute disaster out of the gate we can't see Jerry Jones letting him go early into the season. He might not be the Cowboys' coach this time next year but Dallas has championship aspirations and firing McCarthy would do nothing but create instability.

Our best bet on the first coach to leave

Best Bet: Kevin Stefanski (+1,500)

Stefanski is just three seasons removed from winning Coach of the Year but this is the "what have you done for me lately?" business and the answer to that question is not a whole lot.

Cleveland has recorded back-to-back losing seasons with a 15-19 overall record in that span. It's clear Browns owner Jimmy Haslam is giving Stefanski some leeway because the latter's job was never really in question after last year's 7-10 campaign.

That made sense for a few reasons.

First off, the Browns didn't have Deshaun Watson for the first 11 games and Haslam can't blame anyone but for that but himself. Secondly, why rock the boat? Stefanski led Cleveland to their first winning season since 2002. Going 11-5 in that city will practically have you heralded as the next Messiah.

The Browns should struggle out of the gate

The bar for success in Cleveland is about as low as it gets but we're not convinced Stefanski's team is built to last. The Browns averaged just 16.3 points in the six games Watson was under centre, putting up an average of 298.0 yards and converting on only 35.4% of third downs.

How bad is that? Well, 298.0 YPG would have ranked 29th in the NFL, ahead of only the Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans and L.A. Rams.

Watson averaged just 183.6 passing yards with a 58.2 completion percentage during that run. We understand he's had an entire offseason to get familiar with Stefanski's system but if the system is awful what's the point?

Cleveland gave away the farm for Watson, and there's a serious chance he won't pan out.

Four of the Browns' first five opponents are the Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers (in Pittsburgh, a game they haven't won since 2003), the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers.

We think there's a real possibility they start the year off 1-4 with the offence looking terrible against those great defences. If that's the case, Stefanski will be packing his bags.

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