NFL Week 12 fades: Texans, Broncos should continue to struggle
The Houston Texans will try to improve their fortunes with a new QB under centre, and we don't like their chances. Photo by Tony Gutierrez/AP.

This weekend is a time to be thankful — especially south of the border — but we can still leave room for pessimism with some of our NFL wagers.

The pregame narrative: The Jacksonville Jaguars should be in for a rude awakening coming out of last week's bye, while the Houston Texans are more than just a QB change away from being a competent offence. Also, the Denver Broncos have proven to be fade-worthy nearly every week.

Check out our top NFL Week 12 fades.

NFL Week 12 fades overview

PicksOddsBet now ⬇️
Jaguars under 19.5 points-104BAL/JAX betting markets
Texans under 16.5 points-114HOU/MIA betting markets
Broncos under 18.5 points-114DEN/CAR betting markets

Odds as of 10:21 a.m. on 11/24/2022.

Go to full NFL betting markets.

NFL Week 12 fades

Best Bet: Jaguars under 19.5 points (-104)

Baltimore had a rough go of things last week on the offensive side, but there were no issues defensively.

In a 13-3 win over Carolina, the Ravens held the Panthers to just 205 yards while forcing three turnovers. That comes after Baltimore allowed just 13 points and under 300 yards to the Saints prior to the bye.

NFL Week 12 boostsOddsBet now ⬇️
Tagovailoa, Burrow to both throw 275+ yards+220 (was +200)Add to betslip
Ravens, Bengals, Bucs to cover -2.5+520 (was +470)Add to betslip
Kelce, Adams, Hopkins 8+ catches each+1,100 (was +1,000)Add to betslip
49ers, Chiefs to win by 10+ points+195 (was +175)Add to betslip
Eagles to win, over 46.5 points, Hurts over 240.5 passing yards+385 (was +350)Add to betslip

With former All-Pros Jason Pierre-Paul, Marlon Humphrey and Justin Houston, as well as trade acquisition Roquan Smith, there is no shortage of star talent with this squad. Baltimore is loaded with ballhawks, evidenced by its 1.9 turnovers forced per game (2nd in NFL).

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That should be a factor on Sunday, as the Jaguars have committed 11 turnovers in their past seven games.

Jacksonville's offensive has been fuelled by an efficient run game, which ranks fourth in yards per rush (5.1). But Baltimore's defence has been almost as effective on its side, ranking seventh in yards allowed per rush (4.1).

Though the Jaguars are coming out of the bye — and playing at home — this is a fair number to fade them on. Especially when you consider that the Ravens have allowed fewer points to its past two opponents combined.

Key stat: Baltimore allows 19.9 points per game, and Jacksonville has fallen under this line in four of its past six games.

Quick picks

Texans under 16.5 (-114): This is a very low line, obviously, but the Texans are in a very low place right now.

Their 1-8-1 start has come with the 30th-ranked scoring offence (15.9 points/game) and 32nd-ranked total offence (285.9 yards/game). Now, the team is turning to backup Kyle Allen over Davis Mills, and we don't expect the results to be much better.

Allen, who hasn't started a game since 2020, doesn't seem like the right match to ignite a dormant offence — on the road, no less.

Broncos under 18.5 points (-113): The Broncos have been a solid team to fade at this number all season long, as they've fallen below it in eight of 10 games overall.

Now they'll hit the road to face a Panthers team that held Lamar Jackson and Co. to just 13 points a week before. Carolina hasn't been the best defensive outfit in 2022, but it has held three of its past five opponents to 15 or fewer points.

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