NFL Week 12 underdog picks: Lowly Jets offence gives Bears a solid chance
Justin Fields hasn't been able to overcome the pitfalls of his defence very often, but we like the Bears' chances against the Jets. Photo by Steven Senne/AP.

For this week's underdog picks, we're calling for three NFC teams outside the playoff picture to pull off the upset.

The pregame narrative: One of these days, the Chicago Bears will reward their red-hot quarterback with a win — or at least that's what we think. Elsewhere, the Carolina Panthers will host the league's worst offence, while the Atlanta Falcons face a team that hasn't been tested much during a hot streak.

Check out our best NFL Week 12 underdog picks, featuring three plus-money teams we're backing straight up.

NFL Week 12 underdog picks overview

Week 12 underdog picks OddsBet now ⬇️
Bears ML+165Add to betslip
Panthers ML+118Add to betslip
Falcons ML+170Add to betslip

Odds as of 1:24 p.m. on 11/22/2022.

Go to full NFL betting markets.

NFL Week 12 underdog picks

Best Bet: Bears moneyline (+165)

We had the Bears as our best bet last week, but their defence let us down in a narrow defeat against the Falcons. That's been a familiar tune for Chicago, but it shouldn't be nearly as much of an issue with this week's opponent.

NFL Week 12 boostsOddsBet now ⬇️
Tagovailoa, Burrow to both throw 275+ yards+220 (was +200)Add to betslip
Ravens, Bengals, Bucs to cover -2.5+520 (was +470)Add to betslip
Kelce, Adams, Hopkins 8+ catches each+1,100 (was +1,000)Add to betslip
49ers, Chiefs to win by 10+ points+195 (was +175)Add to betslip
Eagles to win, over 46.5 points, Hurts over 240.5 passing yards+385 (was +350)Add to betslip

Chicago will face Zach Wilson — or Joe Flacco? — this week at MetLife Stadium. Jets coach Robert Saleh said he's "keeping everything on the table" on Sunday after the team gained just 67 total yards in a 10-3 loss last week.

Woof. The Jets have been held to 20 or fewer points in four consecutive games, so it's a good time for a struggling defence to catch them.

Sign up for NorthStar Bets' NFL Sunday newsletter.

Chicago has allowed 35.5 points over its past four games, which has unsurprisingly led to an 0-4 record. But they've lost their past three games by a field goal or less thanks to the stellar efforts of Justin Fields.

Fields looks borderline unstoppable right now amid a six-game tear:

  • 160.5 passing yards/game
  • 10 passing TDs
  • 106.7 rushing yards/game
  • Six rushing TDs

The problem, of course, is that he doesn't play defence. But against a team with its quarterback situation in flux, we think the Bears defence can do enough to help this team get back in the win column.

Key stat: Over the past four weeks, the Jets have the 32nd-ranked offensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders, while the Bears are seventh in that category.

Quick picks

Panthers moneyline (+118): Broncos country rode on to another loss last week, moving to 1-6 in their past seven games. The Panthers, meanwhile, have won two of five, with a pair of tight losses in that stretch.

Last week's 13-3 loss at Baltimore might've been Carolina's most impressive game, at least defensively.

On the offensive side, Baker Mayfield will admittedly have his hands full against the Broncos. But at least Carolina has shown it can put up some points, evidenced by four games of 20-plus points in its past five matchups overall.

Denver, averaging a league-worst 14.7 points per game, has only surpassed the 20-point threshold twice in 10 games this season.

Falcons moneyline (+170): When you consider Washington's 5-1 record in its last six, it might feel difficult to bet on the other side. But with the exception of a stunning upset against the Eagles, we haven't seen the Commanders beat any winning teams in that stretch.

Then again, Atlanta (5-6) isn't a winning team right now, either. But the Falcons did pull off an impressive road upset earlier this year, toppling the Seahawks in Week 3.

Football Outsiders also gives Atlanta the slight edge over Washington in total DVOA, ranking the teams 17th and 18th, respectively.

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.