NFL Week 3 fades: Don't expect a rebound from Chase Edmonds
Chase Edmonds saw his snap share and carry volume drop from Week 1 to Week 2. Photo by Lynne Sladky/AP.

If you've been fading NFL favourites on the moneyline so far this season, you're probably doing quite well. Looking ahead to the Week 3 slate, though, we're looking to fade in other ways.

The pregame narrative: Miami's Chase Edmonds faces stiff competition on the opposite sideline and in his own backfield, while the Colts' projected point total is more than they've scored in two games combined.

Check out our top NFL Week 3 fades.

NFL Week 3 fades overview

PicksOddsBet now
Edmonds under 34.5 rushing yards-120Add to betslip
Colts under 22.5 points-106Add to betslip
Cole Kmet under 2.5 receptions -129Add to betslip

Odds as of 3:09 p.m. on 09/23/2022.

NFL Week 3 fades

Best bet: Edmonds under 34.5 rushing yards (-120)

This bet is as much about backing the Bills as it is about fading Edmonds.

The Bills have seemingly done nothing wrong through two weeks, cruising to victories over the Rams and Titans, allowing 132 combined rushing yards in those games. Last week, Derrick Henry was snuffed out for 25 yards on 13 carries, which marked his lowest yardage total since Week 6 of 2018.

Edmonds will face an uphill battle against this defence, and presumably against a negative game script. Buffalo has never trailed this season, and if Miami falls behind early it could resort to a more pass-heavy attack (especially after quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's epic performance in Week 2).

The other factor working against Edmonds is the Raheem Mostert factor. Mostert stepped into the RB1 spotlight last Sunday, and we're not sure he's giving it back just yet.

EdmondsCarriesYardsSnap%
Week 1122563%
Week 253351%
MostertCarriesYardsSnap%
Week 151642%
Week 2115155%
Stats via Pro Football Reference

If not for a 28-yard rush in the final minute last week — when Baltimore was playing prevent defence — Edmonds wouldn't have come close to clearing the 34.5-yard line. And he still fell short, while Mostert stepped up.

Key stat: Buffalo's defence has allowed just 2.9 yards per carry, which ranks third in the NFL.

Quick picks

Colts under 22.5 points (-106): It's not that we're expecting the Chiefs to pitch a shutout against the Colts — as Jacksonville did to Indianapolis last week — but Matt Ryan and Co. have yet to prove they can clear this line. The Colts are dead last in the NFL in total points (20) and points per play (0.145).

Kansas City has allowed 21 and 24 points in their respective games so far, but garbage time factored into both matchups.

The Chiefs gave up two fourth-quarter touchdowns in Week 1 against Arizona (having entered the fourth up 37-7), and they allowed a touchdown in the final 90 seconds of a Week 2 win against the Chargers.

Kmet under 2.5 receptions (-129): Chicago's third-year tight end is bordering on milk carton status with how absent he's been from the Bears' offence so far.

Through two games, he hasn't caught a pass and only has two targets.

We aren't in love with the price on this one, but the Bears haven't been keen on letting quarterback Justin Fields throw the ball (only 28 attempts in two games). Until further notice, Kmet and most other Bears are on fade watch for their props.

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