NFL Week 3 underdog picks: Back Rodgers, Packers to win in Tampa Bay
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers head to Tampa Bay as underdogs to take on Tom Brady and the Buccaneers this weekend. Photo by Morry Gash/AP.

The NFL has seen its fair share of upsets through two weeks, so let's take a look at what dogs will be barking in Week 3.

The pregame narrative: Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers aren't going anywhere, the Houston Texans look better than advertised and the Pittsburgh Steelers are ready to turn Thursday Night Football into a slog.

Check out our best NFL Week 3 underdog picks, featuring three plus-money teams we're backing straight up.

NFL Week 3 underdog picks overview

Picks OddsBet now
Packers moneyline+108Add to betslip
Texans moneyline+128Add to betslip
Steelers moneyline +180Add to betslip

Odds as of 11:18 a.m. ET on 09/20/2022.

NFL Week 3 underdog picks

Best bet: Packers moneyline (+108)

This should be one of the week's best games. Tom Brady versus Aaron Rodgers in a rematch of the 2021 NFC Championship game. We think Rodgers is poised to enact revenge against a thin Buccaneers squad that's a slim 2.5-point favourite.

Tampa's receivers are banged up. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones both missed Week 2 and the former is out while the latter is questionable Sunday.

A thin WR unit is not ideal for the Bucs as Mike Evans was suspended one game for his late hit on Marshon Lattimore. Tampa's offence managed just one touchdown and 260 total yards last week.

If Evans' suspension is overturned, expect the Packers' odds on the ML to lengthen. We're still confident in Green Bay pulling through, though.

Rodgers and the Packers looked far more competent against the Bears than they did in their Week 1 loss to Minnesota.

What we saw in Week 2 was what we've grown to expect from a Rodgers-led team. The Pack scored 27 points against the Bears, with the four-time MVP throwing for 234 yards and two touchdowns, while Aaron Jones rushed for 132.

It was a balanced attack that saw seven receivers rack up two-plus receptions. That will be needed against a tough Bucs defence that held Dallas to three points in Week 1 and followed it up by surrendering 10 in a Week 2 win over New Orleans.

If Green Bay can get David Bakhtiari to return, that will certainly help slow down a rabid Tampa Bay front seven.

Key stat: Green Bay is 4-2 outright in its last six games as a road underdog.

Quick picks

Texans moneyline (+110): The Texans head to Soldier Field as 3-point road dogs but we like them to leave with their first win of the season. Houston tied Indianapolis in its opener before handily covering against Denver in Mile High.

The Bears' Week 1 victory against the 49ers has inflated the idea of what this team is capable of. Chicago was penned to be a historically bad team this year and we believe the losses are about to start piling up.

The Bears are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven vs. teams with a losing record and 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home. Expect Houston to not only cover but win this game.

Steelers moneyline (+180): This is our riskiest play but we're content to roll with Mike Tomlin in this spot. The Browns are 5-point favourites and Tomlin's 20-6-2 ATS as a divisional underdog.

Pittsburgh has done a solid job defensively through two games, limiting opponents to an average of 18.5 points with a turnover differential of +4. Cleveland's unit has given up 27.5 points per game and suffered two late collapses against the Panthers and Jets.

The Steelers are 11-3-1 in their last 15 games played in Cleveland.

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