The NFL season is underway and the odds movement has been significant on the win total market.
The latest: Hot starts and slow beginnings have certain teams' win totals moving as the year progresses. The Cincinnati Bengals are trending downward thanks to an underwhelming start while the undefeated Miami Dolphins are on the rise.
Find the latest NFL win total odds below ahead of Week 4 action.
NFL win total odds
We'll start off by looking at the AFC, which includes the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and a number of other powerhouses.
The New York Jets are a team descending after a Week 1 injury to Aaron Rodgers. Their total was 9.5 to open the year but has dropped in response to his season-ending Achilles tear.
AFC projected win totals
| Team | Total | Over | Under |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.5 | -125 | +155 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | -150 | +123 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Cleveland Browns | 10.5 | +125 | -152 |
| Denver Broncos | 5.5 | -150 | +123 |
| Houston Texans | 6.5 | +104 | -125 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7.5 | -162 | +133 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5 | -130 | +107 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | -106 | -115 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 | -152 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 8.5 | -143 | +118 |
| Miami Dolphins | 11.5 | -177 | +144 |
| New England Patriots | 7.5 | +125 | -152 |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | -162 | +133 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 | +110 | -134 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7.5 | -118 | -104 |
NFL odds as of 2:34 p.m. on 09/26/2023.
Highest total: Miami Dolphins (11.5)
Miami and Kansas City both have an 11.5-game win total, but the odds (-177 to -106) suggest the Dolphins have a better shot at getting over their mark.
And that makes sense given what we've seen through three weeks. The Phins are undefeated, Tua Tagovailoa is second with 1,024 passing yards and Miami is coming off a 70-20 win over the Denver Broncos.
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The Dolphins' rushing attack has been equally as impressive as both Raheem Mostert (240) and Devon Achane (208) have more than 200 rushing yards on the season.
The only reason for pause with the Dolphins is Tagovailoa's injury history.
Miami hits the road to battle the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 before easier matchups against the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers. After that, they play the Philadelphia Eagles and Chiefs in two of the next three weeks before going on bye.
Lowest total: New York Jets (5.5)
New York's season came and went before it really even started.
Rodgers' injury in the team's season opener against Buffalo has dampened any reason for optimism. The Jets have lost back-to-back games and are getting brutal quarterback play from Zack Wilson.
Wilson has the third-lowest yards per attempt (5.6) among all QBs, leading only a hobbled Joe Burrow (4.7) and rookie Bryce Young (4.2).
Their defence has been serviceable but not good enough to overcome their offensive shortcomings.
NFC projected win total
| Team | Total | Over | Under |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.5 | -125 | +103 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 | -130 | +107 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5.5 | +137 | -167 |
| Chicago Bears | 5.5 | +133 | -162 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10.5 | +104 | -125 |
| Detroit Lions | 10.5 | +144 | -177 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.5 | +110 | -134 |
| Los Angeles Rams | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6.5 | -121 | +100 |
| New Orleans Saints | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| New York Giants | 6.5 | -118 | -104 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| San Francisco 49ers | 12.5 | +100 | -121 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | OTB | OTB | OTB |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | +123 | -150 |
NFL odds as of 2:34 p.m. on 09/26/2023.
Highest total: San Francisco 49ers (12.5)
The 49ers have looked as dominant as advertised in 2023.
San Francisco has coasted to three wins to open the campaign, boasting the best point differential (+48) in the NFC. The defence continues to stymie its opponents, allowing the third-fewest yards per play (4.2) in the league.
Christian McCaffrey is shouldering the load offensively. He leads the league in rushing yards (353) and is averaging an eye-popping 5.9 yards per carry.
Brock Purdy is still undefeated in the regular season, sporting a perfect 8-0 record dating back to last season.
Lowest total: Arizona Cardinals (4.5)
Arizona had four wins last season and the odds suggest the team will hover around that mark again.
The team has had some encouraging results to open the campaign, enduring a couple of one-score losses before a 28-16 upset win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3.
Josh Dobbs has provided serviceable play at quarterback. He has two touchdowns and no interceptions with 549 passing yards.
The defence is playing well, limiting opponents to a respectable 5.3 yards per play.
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