NFL win total picks for 10 teams with new coaches
Photo by Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP.

The coaching carousel spins during every NFL offseason, but this year there's an unusually large crop of teams that have made a change. Ten franchises have opted for new bench bosses.

They range from experienced veterans like Doug Pederson to unorthodox whiz kids like Mike McDaniels. A new coach can make a world of difference for an NFL team, but that kind of move can also make a club difficult to project, especially in the short term.

Here are our best NFL win total picks for those 10 teams with new head coaches.

NFL win total picks overview

Win total betsOddsBet now
Jaguars over 6.5 wins+106Add to betslip
Vikings over 9.5 wins+100Add to betslip
Saints over 8.5 wins-110Add to betslip
Bears under 5.5 wins+123Add to betslip
Broncos under 10 wins -118Add to betslip
Raiders under 8.5 wins +103Add to betslip
Buccaneers under 10.5 wins+150Add to betslip

Odds as of 4:18 p.m. on 09/01/2022.

NFL win total picks

We like three teams here to top their win total projection, including the Jags, who have the longest odds of this trio as a plus-money play.

The overs

Jaguars over 6.5 wins (+106): Jacksonville hasn't cleared this over since 2017, but this is the year. Last year's results aren't pretty, but you can throw out everything that happened with the 3-14 Jaguars in 2021 due to the Urban Meyer factor.

Pederson brings Super Bowl pedigree and basic competence to the role while Trevor Lawrence — widely seen as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck — is likely to take a step forward in his second season.

Jacksonville gave out several head-scratching deals in the offseason that may not return good value on a per-dollar basis, but do in fact help improve the roster. The face of that flurry of activity is Christian Kirk, who gives Lawrence the best receiver he's played with in his NFL career.

Vikings over 9.5 wins (+100): The Vikings are a team whose coaching change has their arrow pointing firmly up. Under Mike Zimmer, they insisted on running a conservative and archaic run-first offence that held back quarterback Kirk Cousins — as well as playmakers like Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.

Kevin O'Connell's work as the Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator inspires confidence that he can build a more imaginative attack than Minnesota has had in a long time.

He also has experience as Cousins' quarterback coach from his time in Washington, so he has a strong chance to hit the ground running.

With the Bears and Lions firmly in a rebuild, we like the Vikings — an underdog Super Bowl play at +4,000 — to pile up wins within the division even if the Green Bay Packers remain the NFC North's top dog.

Saints over 8.5 wins (-110): The departure of Sean Payton is a blow to New Orleans, but Dennis Allen inherits a strong roster. The Saints have an exceptional defence, and they went 5-2 when Jameis Winston was healthy in 2021.

First-round receiver Chris Olave should make the offence more explosive — as could the return of Micheal Thomas. If that unit holds up its side of the bargain, the defence will do the rest.

New Orleans will also be helped by playing the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers twice a year. Even the Buccaneers look a touch shaky heading into this season and the Saints have beaten Tampa in all four of the team's regular-season matchups since Tom Brady's arrival.

NFL win total picks: The unders

Bears under 5.5 wins (+123): Put simply, Chicago's roster is a garbage fire. Sophomore quarterback Justin Fields has potential but lacks big-time offensive weapons and a functional offensive line.

You're in trouble when your best skill-position player is Darnell Mooney.

Robert Quinn is Chicago's best playmaker on defence, but the pass rusher's 18.5-sack 2021 was anomalous. It seems unlikely he can match that at age 32 when he's only posted double-digit sacks twice since 2015.

There are some young players with promise on this side of the ball, but the whole group projects to be sieve-like.

The Bears aren't helped by the fact the NFC North is improving with the Vikings opening things up on offence and the Detroit Lions' rebuild coming along nicely.

Broncos under 10 wins (-118): When Russell Wilson is your quarterback, you tend to clear this win total. The veteran has led his club to double-digit wins eight times in 10 seasons.

Unfortunately for Nathaniel Hackett's squad, Wilson's presence may not mean as much as it used to. The 33-year-old missed games due to injury for the first time in 2021, and his rushing yardage hit the lowest mark of his career (13.1 yards/game).

It's unclear how his improvisational style based on escaping pressure and flinging the ball deep will survive the athletic decline he's experiencing.

Wilson may not fall off a cliff this year, but he's clearly the third-best quarterback in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. There are only so many wins to go around in the AFC West, and the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are likely to pick up the lion's share.

Raiders under 8.5 wins (+103): As is the case with Denver, this bet is on the excellence of the Chiefs and Chargers as much as any of the Raiders' deficiencies.

Las Vegas made some big swings in the offseason with the additions of DeVante Adams and Chandler Jones, but the club remains a tier below its AFC West competition.

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Although the Raiders made the playoffs last season, they had a -65 point differential and probably didn't deserve to be there.

Even with a strengthened roster, it's hard to see them putting together a winning season when anything better than a 2-4 divisional record would be shocking.

Buccaneers under 10.5 wins (+150): It's not hard to envision the Bucs clearing this total as they've averaged 12 wins per season in the Tom Brady era, but we're intrigued by the value here.

The Buccaneers offensive line has become a serious question mark following Ali Marpet's retirement and a litany of preseason injuries.

Brady was also absent from the team for 11 days under mysterious circumstances during training camp after briefly retiring after the 2021 season. He also is at an age (45) when his body could break down at any time.

Betting against Brady has been disastrous in most contexts, but Tampa Bay doesn't look like it is at its best right now.

Teams to avoid

Texans over/under 4.5 wins (-110): This is a hard number to feel confident in either way, which explains why you can get equal odds for either side of the wager.

Houston has posted at least four wins in each of the last two seasons, which supports an under bet, but the AFC South is one of the weakest divisions in football and Davis Mills could take a step forward.

No one on the planet expects the Texans to be good but five wins is an achievable number, especially if running back Dameon Pierce can be the difference maker he looked like in the preseason.

For what it's worth, new coach Lovie Smith has led his team to at least five wins in 11 of his 12 seasons as a head coach.

Dolphins over 8.5 wins (-134) or under (+110): The Dolphins are such a mystery box of a team that it's hard to advise making any kind of win total bet on them.

Theoretically speaking, the additions of Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead, and Chase Edmons could supercharge this offence — especially in conjunction with McDaniels' experience in the Kyle Shanahan system with the San Francisco 49ers.

That's exciting considering the team's defence is a talented unit that created problems for teams down the stretch in 2021. The issue here is quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is tough to project entering his third season.

Tagovailoa is accurate, but if he can't push the ball down the field he won't be able to make the best possible use of Hill — and Jaylen Waddle — and will leave this team stuck in neutral.

The southpaw was considered a great talent at one point — and it's early to give up on him entirely — but his range of outcomes is massive.

Giants over 7.5 wins (+123) or under (-150): Although we're generally bullish on the Brian Daboll hiring, that's different than feeling good about the Giants.

Despite a couple of excellent picks at the top of the 2022 draft, this roster is still thin and Daniel Jones seems unlikely to establish himself as a franchise quarterback.

The under looks like the right play here, but there's simply too much juice on it. Daboll's offensive schemes from Buffalo could elevate this group — and the NFC East isn't a scary division — so we wouldn't recommend backing them to get seven wins or fewer at -150.

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.