Odds to win the NL Cy Young Award: Sandy Alcantara clinging to late lead
Sandy Alcantara is having by far the best season of his career. Photo by Jesse Alcheh/AP.

With the MLB season in its final act, it's a good time to take a look at the best bets to win the 2022 National League Cy Young Award.

The latest: The Marlins are in the midst of another forgettable season, but their ace is positioned to bring home the hardware. A number of starters remain in the picture, though, and there's still baseball left to play.

Here are the latest NL Cy Young odds.

NL Cy Young odds

Check out the latest odds to win the NL Cy Young.

PlayerOddsOdds on September 13
Sandy Alcantara-435-190
Julio Urias+700+650
Max Fried+1,200+550
Zac Gallen+1,500+700
Tony Gonsolin+6,000+3,300
Spencer Strider+8,000+7,500
Carlos Rodon+15,000+12,500
Max Scherzer+15,000+10,000
Corbin Burnes+25,000+9,000
Aaron Nola+25,000N/A

Odds as of 3:46 p.m. on 09/19/2022.

Best NL Cy Young odds

The favourite: Sandy Alcantara (-435)

Coming into the season, Alcantara was seen as more of a reliable top-of-the-rotation arm than one of the majors' best pitchers, but he's taken his performance to another level in 2022.

The Marlins right-hander is providing a compelling combination of quantity and quality with his innings load, getting deep into games without sacrificing efficiency on a per-frame basis.

Because the 26-year-old doesn't strike out a tonne of batters compared to some of his fellow aces you can poke a few holes in his candidacy, but he's done a stellar job minimizing hard contact. Even though his xERA (3.02) is above his ERA (2.37), it's still in the top 20% of the league, which suggests there isn't a major drop-off coming.

Alcantara's strikeout and walk rates are more good than great, but everything else he does is elite. If he stays healthy he's likely to impress voters with 200-plus innings and an ERA between 2.00 and 2.50.

The right-hander cracked the door open for his competition by allowing 16 earned runs in a four-outing span from August 21 to September 8, but his next two outings were near-perfect and he's the heavy favourite again.

Other NL Cy Young choices

Best value: Zac Gallen (+1,500)

Gallen hasn't been on the radar for this award all season, but he's made an impact lately. Between August 8 and September 4 the right-hander produced 41.1 innings of scoreless ball with 46 strikeouts against just eight walks. Although that scoreless streak was ended with three runs conceded at Coors Field on September 11, there's no doubt Gallen is coming in hot.

Voters for this award tend to be swayed by narratives, and the story of Gallen becoming unhittable later in the year is pretty compelling — especially if it juxtaposes perfectly with a slide from Alcantara.

The 27-year-old's year-long numbers look a touch light for this award, but if he's able to keep his momentum going it could come within his grasp.

Player to watch: Carlos Rodon (+15,000)

Rodon has some of the nastiest swing-and-miss stuff in the major leagues, and he's quietly putting together a stellar season.

While the left-hander is behind the pack in volume-based metrics, we saw Corbin Burnes win this award pitching just 167 innings last year. If Rodon can stay healthy — which has always been a significant if for him — he can build a similar case. He's ahead of Alcantara in fWAR (5.7 to Alcantara's 5.1), and his high strikeout rate (11.81 K/9) jumps off the page.

There's a certain type of voter that will penalize Rodon for the lack of a workhorse innings load, but it's hard to ignore a guy who allows two or fewer runs in 23 of his 29 starts.

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