While the universal DH means the National League is no longer a better place than the American League for pitchers to excel, the Senior Circuit is still flush with elite arms.
The latest: Sandy Alcantara is favoured to defend his Cy Young crown, but he might not be the best bet on the board. Aaron Nola had a case last season and should have one again, while Zac Gallen's second-half excellence makes him worth a look.
Here are the latest NL Cy Young odds.
NL Cy Young odds
Check out the latest odds to win the NL Cy Young.
| Player | Odds (Mar. 20) | Odds (Mar. 6) |
| Sandy Alcantara | +450 | +450 |
| Corbin Burnes | +500 | +500 |
| Justin Verlander | +550 | +550 |
| Max Scherzer | +750 | +750 |
| Max Fried | +1,000 | +1,000 |
| Spencer Strider | +1,100 | +1,000 |
| Aaron Nola | +1,400 | +1,400 |
| Zac Gallen | +1,600 | +1,600 |
| Zack Wheeler | +1,600 | +1,800 |
| Julio Urias | +2,000 | +2,000 |
Odds as of 11:12 a.m. on 03/20/2023.
Best NL Cy Young odds
The favourite: Alcantara (+450)
Alcantara is coming off a career year, but it would be surprising to see him take home another Cy Young.
The big right-hander is at a significant disadvantage against his opposition when it comes to strikeout rate as his career number (8.02 K/9) is unimpressive and he wasn't much better last season (8.15).
That lack of swing-and-miss puts the onus on Alcantara to reach incredible heights in other facets of his game. He did that in 2022 with run suppression (2.28 ERA) and workload (228.2 IP).
He'll be hard-pressed to repeat either number and his contact management numbers suggest he was a touch lucky last year. His xERA 2.92 was significantly worse than his real number, and his hard-hit rate conceded (38.5%) was below league average.
His innings total was the highest by a pitcher since 2016 and it may be hard to replicate, even for a workhorse like Alcantara.
Other NL Cy Young choices
Best value: Nola (+1,400)
Nola is coming off a career year that saw him lead all MLB pitchers in fWAR and he's got a quality we're desperate to see in any Cy Young candidate: durability.
Since 2018, the right-hander has been good for 32 or more starts in every full season and he leads the majors in innings pitched (871.1).
Because we're confident Nola will be able to take on a heavy load, his candidacy rests in his per-inning efficiency. If it's anything like what we saw in 2022, he'll be an excellent choice for this award.
Last season, Nola missed out on his Cy Young chance due to an ERA (3.25) that came in well above his xERA (2.74). If the pendulum swings the other way, he'll be in good shape.
Player to watch: Gallen (+1,600)
Gallen lacks the name recognition of his competitors, but the way he finished 2022 is hard to ignore.
The right-hander produced a 1.49 ERA in the second half on the way to an MLB-best 3.3 fWAR. The next best total was Blake Snell's 2.8.
These odds reflect a healthy skepticism that Gallen can be that guy again, and that's fair considering he's never topped 1.6 fWAR in a season before 2022.
Even so, he made some notable pitch mix changes in the second half, cutting a slider from his repertoire and using more curveballs and cutters. There's a not-insignificant chance that his second-half stats are for real, especially as they included an elite K/BB ratio (5.42) that put his FIP at 2.07.
If he has landed on a formula for sustainable, elite, production then these odds will be a steal.