The Atlanta Braves dominated the NL Rookie of the Year conversation in 2022 behind Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider, but this season we should see a more balanced race.
The Atlanta Braves dominated the NL Rookie of the Year conversation in 2022 behind Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider, but this season we should see a more balanced race.
The latest: Corbin Carroll was outstanding in his first taste of MLB action last season, Kodai Senga comes from Japan with plenty of hype and Cade Cavalli has more role security than most rookies.
Here are the latest NL Rookie of the Year odds.
Check out the latest odds to win the NL Rookie of the Year. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.
| Player | Odds |
| Corbin Carroll | +400 |
| Kodai Senga | +650 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | +650 |
| Miguel Vargas | +750 |
| Francisco Alvarez | +1,000 |
| Cade Cavalli | +1,100 |
| Spencer Steer | +1,200 |
| Sal Frelick | +1,400 |
| Elly de la Cruz | +1,400 |
| Eury Perez | +1,600 |
Odds as of 9:29 p.m. on 01/25/2022.
The favourite: Carroll (+400)
Caroll sits atop this leaderboard because he's proven a great deal at the MLB level for a player who retains rookie status.
The outfielder hit .260/.330/.500 in 115 plate appearances with the Arizona Diamondbacks last season after dominating the Double-A and Triple-A levels.
His wheels are special, with Baseball Savant's sprint speed metric pegging him as MLB's fastest man in 2022 — but that's not all he brings to the table.
Carroll is also a solid power hitter who managed 27 home runs across three levels last season with an ISO of .240 or better at each stop.
The 22-year-old's strikeout rates have tended to be a bit high, but the 15.5% walk rate he produced in his minor league career suggests he's got a solid understanding of the strike zone. Carroll projects to produce for his team at the plate, on the bases and in the field.
Best value: Senga (+675)
Some voters will be disinclined to back a 29-year-old with plenty of professional experience, but Senga is eligible for this award and capable of putting together an outstanding season.
The right-hander posted a 1.94 ERA in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball last season, which would've led the league if he hadn't fallen just short of the qualified innings threshold. He also posted a solid 9.8 K/9.
Unlike some imports, there's very little doubt that Senga's raw stuff will play at the MLB level thanks to elite velocity and a number of impressive secondary pitches.
Kodai Senga, 99mph Fastball and 84mph Slider, Individual Pitches + Overlay. pic.twitter.com/nF60sUBvED
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 2, 2022
Senga will also benefit from playing in front of a group of position players that ranked ninth in MLB in defensive value last season, according to FanGraphs.
There's a reason why the New York Mets offered him a $75 million contract. Senga has a good chance to produce from Day 1.
Player to watch: Cavalli (+1,100)
When you're looking into ROTY futures, it's usually a good idea to target players who have been pencilled into Opening Day roles.
That's no guarantee of a successful season — and players who come up a little later have won this award — but those players with roles nailed down have a little more room for error.
With that in mind, Cavalli looks like an interesting value pick. He currently projects to be the Washington Nationals' fourth starter.
The right-hander isn't just a warm body filling in for a team without alternatives, either, as FanGraphs has him as the 26th-ranked prospect in baseball. He posted solid numbers at Triple-A last season and his fastball averaged 95.5 mph in his only MLB outing in 2022.
He's not just reliant on the heat, either:
Cade Cavalli, Wicked Breaking Balls.
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 25, 2022
And a Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/33WcJhyISn
Expect Cavalli to have a long leash with a Nationals team going nowhere. If he makes the best of it, this award could be his.