In the final stretch of the season, the NL Rookie of the Year award looks like it will be won by one of two Atlanta Braves teammates.
In the final stretch of the season, the NL Rookie of the Year award looks like it will be won by one of two Atlanta Braves teammates.
The latest: Spencer Strider has had an incredible campaign, but a late-season trip to the IL looks like it will torpedo his chances. Michael Harris II, on the other hand, has been extremely productive — especially in recent weeks.
As the season's final month nears it conclusion, here are the latest NL Rookie of the Year odds.
Check out the latest odds to win the NL Rookie of the Year. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.
| Player | Odds | Odds on September 19 |
| Michael Harris II | -435 | +100 |
| Spencer Strider | +275 | -137 |
| Nolan Gorman | +50,000 | +40,000 |
| Oneil Cruz | +50,000 | +40,000 |
Odds as of 3:53 p.m. on 09/26/2022.
The favourite: Michael Harris II (-435)
Harris has been in a dogfight with his Braves teammate for this award for most of the season, and the multi-talented outfielder looks like he'll come out on top.
Strider's season just ended due to an oblique, while Harris keeps on chugging in centre field. There are some red flags surrounding the 21-year-old's plate discipline, but at this point, it's hard to deny his production.
His fWAR (4.8) is similar to Strider's (4.9) and he has done an excellent job of generating value at the dish, in the field, and on the bases. His line since the All-Star Break — .324/.369/.567 — has been nothing short of exceptional and he's come from behind in this race to earn top-dog status.
As long as Harris doesn't experience a horrific slump down the stretch, he should wrap this up.
Best value: Spencer Strider (+275)
Entering the season, Strider didn't look like much of a candidate for this award, but a midseason promotion to the Braves rotation changed his prospects.
Strider's elite fastball velocity made him a bullpen weapon, but he's shown he can be much more since converting to a starter without losing significant per-inning effectiveness. The right-hander leads all rookie pitchers in fWAR (4.9), and his strikeout rate as a starter (13.84 K/9) has led him to set a significant MLB record:
Spencer Strider is the fastest pitcher EVER to reach 200 strikeouts in a season.
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) September 18, 2022
200 strikeouts in 130ip. Beating Randy Johnson’s record when he did it in 130.2ip
The 23-year-old struggles with walks and hard contact at times, but his bat-missing dominance tends to get him out of trouble. A 98-mph fastball will do that for you.
In a rookie class with relatively unimpressive pitching, Strider is the NL's best in virtually every category. Unfortunately, it seems he won't be able to make the last impression that's often necessary to win this award.
Instead, his only hope is for Harris to struggle.
Player to watch: N/A
If you're betting on anyone but Strider or Harris you're throwing up a true Hail Mary. There simply isn't enough time for Oneil Cruz of Nolan Gorman to get back into this race barring an unprecedented stretch run.
Cruz has tools so impressive anything is possible with him, but even at +50,000, he's not good value considering he's 3.4 fWAR behind Harris with less than 20 games remaining.