Only one team can win Super Bowl LVIII, but for now, every team has a shot.
The new NFL campaign kicks off on September 7 and our staff has highlighted the teams they think have the best shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
Here are our staff Super Bowl picks for the 2023 NFL season.
Super Bowl picks
Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
Each writer — Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin and Steven Psihogios — made three picks, including a value selection. The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs didn't make anyone's list.
We'll start with Perri's Super Bowl choices, which begin with the team that lost to the Chiefs: the Philadelphia Eagles.
Super Bowl picks: Eagles should dominate again
Best Bet: Eagles (+750)
This is a square pick but I don't care. The Eagles were the class of the NFC last season and have improved their roster heading into 2023.
Philadelphia's offence was a problem through the air and on the ground. The Eagles ranked top 10 in both passing yards (241.5) and rushing yards (147.6) per game, averaged the second-most PPG (28.1) and had the fifth-fewest turnovers (19).
A lot of that success can be attributed to Jalen Hurts, who ranked No. 3 on the NFL's top 100 players of 2023. Obviously, that isn't the best metric to go off, but ranking fourth in QBR (68.3), third yards per attempt (8.0) and second in rushing touchdowns (13) speaks for itself.
The defence was also among the league's best, holding opponents to the second-fewest yards (301.5) and seventh-fewest points (20.2) per game. That unit added a trio of Georgia Bulldogs — including Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith — in the draft.
In a conference that lacks parity, the Eagles seem like a safe pick to be back in the Big Game.
Dolphins: (+2,500)
It's not unreasonable to suggest the Miami Dolphins' success will come and go with the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. And there's certainly some risk there, considering his concerning injury history.
But at +2,500 that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Miami went 8-4 with Tagovailoa under centre last season, excluding Week 4 when he left early with an injury. The Phins averaged 26.4 points and 369.25 yards of offence in those contests.
They still have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as cornerstones of an electric offence but what really excites me is the other side of the ball. Vic Fangio was brought in as defensive coordinator and he'll have Jalen Ramsey to pair opposite Xavien Howard once the former is healthy.
The AFC is a gauntlet but Miami is well equipped to run through it.
Best value: Steelers
Steelers: (+5,000)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have generated plenty of hype this offseason and for good reason.
Pittsburgh had one of the best defences in football last year and that unit should only get better with the additions of Joey Porter Jr. and Nick Herbig through the draft. In games where T.J. Watt played, the Black and Gold went 8-2, allowing an average of 16.9 points per game.
It's hard to imagine Pittsburgh going on a deep playoff run with Watt sidelined, but when he plays, this team is hard to beat.
As for the offence, there's plenty to like. Their receiving room is deep, the offensive line is improved, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren form a stellar one-two punch at running back, and Kenny Pickett looks ready to take the next step.
Pickett went 13-of-15 for 199 passing yards and two touchdowns across three games of preseason work. He owned a perfect 158.3 passer rating and all five of the drives he led resulted in touchdowns.
Those are preseason stats, but the 2022 first-round pick engineered some impressive game-winning drives down the stretch of last season, too.
Pittsburgh has the eighth-easiest strength of schedule, according to Sharp Football Analysis. It's hard to pass up on a team this deep at a price this long.
Super Bowl picks: Baltimore could be poised for rebound
Following picks via Horrobin
Best Bet: Eagles (+750)
The reigning NFC champions have the shortest odds of any team in the conference, which should be no surprise. Last year’s Eagles finished third in total offence and second in total defence, and you’d have to squint to find any holes in the ’23 squad.
Wide receiver depth is lacking, but Philly still has one of the best one-two punches in the sport with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Nothing to worry about there.
Hurts flashed his MVP potential in ‘22 as an elite two-way quarterback, and he leads a stable of ballcarriers positioned behind PFF’s top-graded offensive line.
Let’s not forget that the defensive line is also No. 1 in PFF’s view.
The Eagles have impressively reloaded with a bevy of young defensive stars, many of whom won a national championship (or two) with Georgia — so you know they’re ready to hunt.
Ravens: (+1,800)
Whether you’re touting the Baltimore Ravens or merely coming to their defence, it’s impossible to do so without uttering the word “injuries.”
A knee injury prevented Lamar Jackson from playing in the one-score playoff loss to the Bengals, as well as several games before it. Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins (knee) and Rashod Bateman (foot) both missed more than 50% of the year.
Hopes are high for all three of those players to enjoy better health this season. And the additions of Odell Beckham Jr. plus first-round rookie Zay Flowers should help make this run-first offence more dynamic.
Paired with a No. 3-ranked scoring defence, that could be a huge problem for the NFL.
Best value: Giants
Giants: (+6,000)
Unfortunately, the New York Giants play in a division with two of the NFC’s most highly-regarded teams, the Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. But on the bright side, New York managed to slip into a playoff spot alongside those squads last year.
Brian Daboll’s first season in New York was a smashing success. He won NFL Coach of the Year honours while boosting the team from 31st to 15th in scoring offence.
Saquon Barkley is back with a new contract, and so is Daniel Jones. We don’t think much of the receiving corps, but the addition of Darren Waller could be sneakily lucrative.
If Daboll can squeeze more juice out of his offence in Year 2, it’ll make up for a so-so defence that looks good up front but lacks playmaking in the secondary.
Super Bowl picks: Don't count out the Bills
Following picks via Psihogios
Best Bet: Bills (+900)
There isn't a Super Bowl contender getting less love as the regular season nears than the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills were the favourites to win it all for most of last year before everything fell apart over the second half of the season. Josh Allen suffered an elbow injury, Von Miller tore his ACL, almost every member of the secondary was injured and Damar Hamlin suffered a life-threatening scare on the football field.
But Allen is healthy again, Miller will likely be back shortly after starting the year on the PUP list, the entire secondary is returning and Hamlin is back on the field.
No team is returning more of its roster than Buffalo. This squad should be right at the front of the Super Bowl conversation once again.
Cowboys: (+1,500)
There really isn't a weakness on this team.
The two biggest holes on this roster were cornerback and wide receiver depth. Dallas added veteran star Stephon Gilmore to start opposite Trevon Diggs. Gilmore proved last year that he has plenty left in the tank and will serve perfectly as a No. 2 corner at this stage of his career.
The Cowboys added Brandin Cooks at wide receiver. The six-time, 1,000-yard wide receiver can offer this offence a legitimate secondary option in the passing game, something it was missing last year.
The defence is returning and is led by one of the league's biggest game-breakers in Micah Parsons. Dak Prescott uncharacteristically led the league in interceptions last season, a trend that is unlikely to continue considering his track record.
The NFC is short on top contenders. Dallas' roster is good enough to compete with any team from the conference and advance to the Super Bowl.
Best value: Giants
Giants: (+6,000)
Any Super Bowl long shot pick should be a team from the NFC.
The reason for that is simple: This is clearly the weaker conference.
The odds say just as much. There are 11 AFC teams with better odds to win it all than the Giants, but just six in the NFC.
New York made major strides in its first season with Daboll as head coach. Jones set a single-season high for passing yards (3,205), yards per attempt (6.8) and had the lowest interception percentage (1.1%) in the league.
The passing attack figures to be even better in 2023. New York added Waller, Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt, a notable supporting cast upgrade from what Jones was working with last season.
The defence will have to be better if it wants to contend for the Super Bowl. If first-round pick Deonte Banks hits in the NFL, he'll help a secondary that was a major weakness in 2022.
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