Packers vs. Buccaneers Week 3 picks and odds: Thin WR group could cost Tampa Bay
Tom Brady will be down a number of key players, including star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Photo by Butch Dill/AP.

In a rematch of the 2020 NFC Championship game, the Green Bay Packers face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Green Bay responded well after a season-opening disappointment in Minnesota, while Tampa Bay enters as one of just six remaining unbeaten teams. The Buccaneers' lack of receiving depth is a concern, but so is the Packers' run defence.

Check out our Packers vs. Buccaneers Week 3 picks for September 25.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Week 3 picks overview

PicksOddsBet now
Tom Brady under 244.5 passing yards-114Add to betslip
Under 42.5 points-117Add to betslip
Packers moneyline-103Add to betslip

Odds as of 4:06 p.m. on 09/23/2022.

Packers vs. Buccaneer Week 3 picks

Best bet: Brady under 244.5 passing yards (-114)

Mike Evans is suspended, Chris Godwin is out and Julio Jones is questionable, meaning Brady's receiving corps for Sunday could be headlined by Russell Gage (also questionable), Breshad Perriman and maybe even Cole Beasley.

It's a good thing for Beasley that Brady checks his Instagram DMs. But this group of castoffs and retreads doesn't give us much confidence in the 45-year-old quarterback clearing this passing prop.

With some combination of Evans, Godwin and Jones over the first two weeks, Brady averaged 201 yards per game and fell below the 245-yard mark both times.

Julio Jones (right) and Chris Godwin did not participate in practice on Wednesday or Thursday this week. Photo by Ron Jenkins/AP.

The Bucs played in a pair of low-scoring, grind-it-out matchups that didn't require Brady to take control in the passing game. And his pedestrian 6.6 yards/attempt is unlikely to improve as his WR room undergoes a major downgrade.

Even with a healthy group of receivers, the Buccaneers might've been more inclined to lean on their run game against the Packers anyway. Green Bay has allowed 5.6 yards/rush so far, which is the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.

Last week, even as the Bears trailed by multiple scores at Lambeau Field, they largely kept the ball on the ground and racked up 180 rush yards.

Tampa may need to deploy a similar strategy out of necessity, thus hurting Brady's chances of a big game through the air.

Key stat: Brady is 22nd among quarterbacks with 61 pass attempts.

Quick picks

Under 42.5 points (-117): Through two weeks, neither of these teams has played in a game that hit the 40-point threshold. Their defences have been largely stout — especially Tampa's — and their offences haven't fully clicked.

Both teams rank in the top 10 in rush attempts per game, a trend that will presumably chew clock if it continues. Amazingly, the Buccaneers have only scored two offensive touchdowns and allowed one so far.

Packers ML (-103): The Buccaneers have averaged just 4.8 yards/play this year (25th in NFL), and that was before they fully transitioned to a skeleton receiving corps. Now, the Packers should be able to key on the run game, which will help address that weakness.

Green Bay also may finally have a fully healthy o-line, as LT David Bakhtiari practiced on Thursday and Friday. Simply put, we have more faith in the Packers' offence to break through amid the slog.

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