Who's going to win the Super Bowl? I'll provide a best bet, a dark horse and a team to avoid for the 2024-25 season.
The latest: The Kansas City Chiefs are favoured to win for the third time in a row but I'm looking elsewhere for value. I have my eyes on another AFC powerhouse, plus two teams from the NFC.
Check out my best Super Bowl bets to make before the NFL season starts.
NFL Super Bowl bets
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Best Super Bowl bet
Ravens (+1,000)
It's hard to believe you can get Baltimore at nearly double the odds of Kansas City (+550) to win the Super Bowl.
Sure, the Chiefs toppled the Ravens in last year's AFC Championship game and are gunning for a three-peat — that can't be overlooked. But Baltimore was the class of the NFL during the regular season and gained home-field advantage behind an MVP campaign from Lamar Jackson.
Jackson and Co. ranked fourth in points per game and sixth in EPA per play (+0.069), per RBSDM, thanks to a rushing attack that was among the best in football.
And the team was successful on the ground despite an injury-plagued RB room and no true bell-cow back.
Now the Ravens have future Hall-of-Famer Derrick Henry flanking Jackson, who should be as productive as ever. That's to go along with some legitimate passing threats in Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, the latter of which missed most of last season with an injury.
If the playcalling lives up to the talent, Baltimore's offence should be even better in 2024.
And the defence is simply elite.
Roquan Smith, Justin Madubuike and Kyle Hamilton were three of the team's six All-Pros last season.
They anchor a unit which allowed the fewest points per game (16.5), had the most sacks (60.0), and ranked second in defensive EPA per play (-0.127).
Top value play
Falcons (+3,000)
A new coach and a new quarterback... what could go wrong?
That's the pessimist's line of thinking. We should ask what could go right, and I would answer: A lot.
The Atlanta Falcons spent years drafting great offensive players like Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson and now they have a quarterback to tie it all together.
Kirk Cousins is under centre and is poised to have a strong year following an Achilles injury.
Atlanta's offensive line was great last year and all five starters are back for 2024. The No. 6-ranked unit by PFF can run block with the best of them. But more importantly, they'll give Cousins a clean pocket and time to get the ball out.
Raheem Morris is in as head coach after a strong year as the Los Angeles Rams' defensive coordinator.
He has a lot of talent to work with on that side of the ball. The Falcons had one of the best secondaries in football last year and used three of their four draft picks on defensive linemen.
Super Bowl bets: The dark horse
Buccaneers (+7,000)
I have zero faith in the Carolina Panthers or New Orleans Saints winning the NFC South.
Getting a home playoff game is key so you could consider this bet a hedge against the Falcons. But I do love the value here as a standalone pick.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hit their stride at the right time last year, winning five of the final six games to claim the division. They picked up two-score wins over the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field and the Jacksonville Jaguars coming down the stretch.
In the playoffs, Tampa hammered the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round before losing by one score to the Detroit Lions on the road.
I don't think Baker Mayfield's fantastic season was a one-off.
He's got a strong offensive line, an experienced receiving corps and a breakout RB in Rachaad White.
Tampa has all-pro talents in Vita Vea, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. anchoring a sneaky-good defence. The Bucs won't be an easy out for anyone.
Team to avoid: Buffalo Bills
Sorry Bills Mafia, it's just not happening this year.
Buffalo holds the seventh-shortest odds to win it all at +1,500 but seems outmatched by most of the AFC's other contenders.
There's no disputing Josh Allen's greatness. But he'll be working with an inexperienced receiving corps following the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis.
I'm not going to dog on Keon Coleman before he plays an NFL snap or undervalue Khalil Shakir, who was solid in 2023. The Bills should still put up points but I can't see them keeping up with the likes of Baltimore, Cincinnati, Kansas City or Houston.
And they will have to keep up because I don't trust their defence.
Buffalo's d-line lacks a true game wrecker, as Von Miller is well past his golden years and last year's team sack leader, Leonard Floyd, is now on the San Francisco 49ers. Also, stalwart linebacker Matt Milano is already on the injured list with a bicep tear.
Sean McDermott is a defensive coach and his defence has folded under the pressure in four straight postseasons. Don't be surprised when it happens again.
Picks made as of 11:00 a.m. on 08/22/2024.
