Frontrunners need not apply. I'm looking for the 3 best Super Bowl sleeper picks to make before the 2024 season.
The pregame narrative: None of the teams on this list care much for a Kansas City Chiefs threepeat. Patrick Mahomes' new sponsorship? Travis Kelce's summer job as Taylor Swift's background dancer? Turn that noise down. I'm looking at a trio of squads that are sleeping giants entering this campaign.
Check out the 3 best Super Bowl sleeper picks to make before the 2024 season.
Super Bowl sleeper picks
Atlanta Falcons (+3,000)
It's difficult to wrap our heads around how much better Atlanta is now than it was a season ago.
Let's paint a picture. The Falcons entered last year with Desmond Ridder as their starting quarterback and Arthur Smith as their head coach. That duo predictably finished among the league's worst in points per game (18.9) as the passing attack had as many touchdowns as interceptions (17).
The upgrade from Ridder to Kirk Cousins is seismic while first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. is one of the best backups in the league.
Fellow first-round picks, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson, should be able to reach their potential with stability under centre.
The defence is better after recent transactions brought Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon to town, filling in crucial gaps. Head coach and ex-Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris should get the most out of this unit, too.
And then there's the division. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the reigning NFC South champs and return mostly the same, but they barely squeaked into the playoffs a year ago.
The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, are the epitome of average while anything but last is an improvement for the Carolina Panthers.
A winnable division and the easiest schedule in all of football, according to Sharp Football, makes this the year to wager on the Falcons.
Digging deeper
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5,000)
I'm somewhat of a Jaguar whisperer.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a difficult team to figure out. I was in on the Jaguars in 2022 when they started 3-7 before winning six of their final seven and securing an AFC South championship.
I was out in 2023 where they started 8-3 before losing five of their final six and finishing the campaign 9-8 and out of a playoff spot.
This kind of streakiness begs the question: Who are the real Jaguars?
Jacksonville likely more closely resembles the team that started strong than the one that fizzled out last year.
Injuries played a big part in the squad's second-half collapse. Trevor Lawrence was severely dinged up, earning injury designations for a knee bruise, an ankle sprain, a concussion and an A/C joint sprain in his shoulder.
A healthy Lawrence and an improved supporting cast should make a difference. Calvin Ridley never meshed well in Duval, but offseason additions Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis join Christian Kirk and Evan Engram in an offence that suddenly is rich in receiving options.
The defence is sneakily loaded with Arik Armstead coming to a unit that also features Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Foyesade Oluokon.
All those ready to crown the Houston Texans as your "Sleeper" team need to pump the brakes and get a little more creative. These are the same Texans that needed a fourth-down stop to beat Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18 just to make the playoffs.
Sure, they beat Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns. But Houston scored a measly 10 points against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.
Don't be surprised if the Jags win this division and go on a run in the playoffs.
Super Bowl sleeper picks: Bottom of the Barrel
Tennessee Titans (+15,000)
It's not a sleeper pick if everybody sees it coming.
And nobody is looking to Tennessee as a Super Bowl contender in 2024.
There's a world where the Titans take everybody by storm and win it all this season and this is how it looks.
Will Levis is the real deal. The big-armed quarterback thrives under ex-Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan, as the offence shifts from run-heavy to pass-heavy.
DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley proved they've still got it in them. Both these receivers have shown they can be among the best at their position, and a return to form makes this a dangerous duo.
L'Jarius Sneed clamps down opposing top wideouts. The stand-out corner operated on an island for the Kansas City Chiefs and was one of the big splashes the squad made this offseason.
Additionally, a sophomore slump from C.J. Stroud and the Texans wouldn't hurt.
If all this seems unlikely to you, that's because it is. But I'm sold enough on the Titans to take the bait and sprinkle at these odds.
Picks made as of 3:06 p.m. on 08/25/2024.
