The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees play the penultimate game of their season series today.
The pregame narrative: Toronto won 8-5 last night and I expect more fireworks with two struggling pitchers, Jose Berrios and Carlos Rodon, on the mound. Prop bets on Aaron Judge and George Springer round out today's picks.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Yankees on Aug. 3.
Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees
Go to full Blue Jays/Yankees MLB betting markets.
Best Bet: Over 9 runs (-121)
Our Jordan Horrobin took this exact wager as his best bet yesterday and it cashed with ease.
I'm running it back for similar reasons.
Berrios and Rodon enter today's contest with ERAs of 3.93 and 4.34, respectively. Those are mediocre marks at best. The pitchers had strong starts to their seasons but have hit the ditch lately, owning 5.82 and 6.88 ERAs across their last seven starts.
Toronto's righty is coming off a 7.0 IP, one ER gem against the Texas Rangers but New York presents a much tougher challenge.
The Yankees rank 10th in batting average (.251) second in runs per game (5.14), and first in OPS (.772).
New York's lineup owns a .284 batting average against Berrios in a massive 188 plate appearance sample size, according to Baseball Savant.
Offensive struggles plagued the Blue Jays throughout most of the season but Toronto has hit its stride (probably at the wrong time, considering they're basically out of the playoff picture).
The Jays are averaging 5.3 runs per game across their last 10 and are 11th in wRC+ (122) since the all-star break.
They've also lit up Rodon to the tune of a .314 batting average in 58 combined plate appearances.
Key stat: The over is 8-1-1 against this total in Toronto's last 10 games.
Quick picks
Judge over 1.5 bases (-132): Judge obliterated a Kevin Gausman fastball 477 feet in the first inning yesterday for his 40th home run of the season.
The AL MVP frontrunner leads the league in HR, OPS (1.143) and total bases (271).
#AllRise for the Captain's 40th HR of the season 🫡 pic.twitter.com/UcVMnvciUZ
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) August 3, 2024
Getting -132 odds for a total bases prop isn't ideal. But with a track record like that, I'm still happy to jump on board.
Judge has cleared this mark in four of his last six games. He's 12-for-24 (.500) in that span with a double and four home runs.
He's also slashing 12-for-32 (.375) lifetime against Berrios with two doubles and four long balls.
Springer over 0.5 runs (+102): A few months ago, fans were wondering if Springer had reached the end of his rope.
But the veteran outfielder is on a nice tear and I like his chances of scoring out of the leadoff spot.
Springer is slashing .322/.391/.609 in his last 30 games. He's scored 22 runs in that span and has reached base safely in seven straight. Perhaps most importantly, he gets to bat ahead of the red-hot Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Springer is 5-for-20 against Rodon with a double and two home runs.
Picks made at 9:52 a.m. on 08/03/24.
