The AFC is a gauntlet brimming with talent and elite quarterback play.
The latest: All eyes are on the Kansas City Chiefs as Patrick Mahomes and Co. look to make history with a three-peat. Five other teams, including the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets hold odds of 10-to-1 or shorter to win the conference.
Check out the best AFC futures bets to make ahead of the new NFL season.
AFC futures
Ravens to win the AFC (+500)
Baltimore is going to be a serious problem — not that it wasn't last year.
The Ravens posted the NFL's best regular-season record in 2023 (13-4) en route to an AFC Championship appearance. Lamar Jackson won his second MVP award and the defence was among the best in football.
Sure, they fell short of the ultimate prize but I'm not going to hold that against them. With several key offseason additions, it's fair to say the team will be even better this time around.
Baltimore's bread and butter is its smashmouth run game.
The team led the league in rushing yards per game (156.5) even with an injury-plagued RB room. Now, it has future hall-of-famer Derrick Henry in the backfield. How are offences are going to stop that option with Jackson? Your guess is as good as mine.
The Ravens have three All-Pros returning on defence in Roquan Smith, Justin Madubuike and Kyle Hamilton. They anchored a unit which allowed the fewest points per game (16.5), had the most sacks (60.0), and ranked second in defensive EPA per play (-0.127).
Getting homefield advantage come playoffs will be key but I think Baltimore can rip off another 12-13 win season even in a tough AFC North.
Best divisional bets
Dolphins to win AFC East (+210)
I'm a little surprised to see the Miami Dolphins with the third-longest odds to win this division.
It feels like the Buffalo Bills' competitive window is closing while the Jets have a 40-year-old quarterback coming in off a torn Achilles.
I explained at length why Buffalo is a team to avoid in our Super Bowl best bets piece but here's the short summary: An inexperienced receiving corps, oft-injured defence, and suspect coaching in the biggest games.
As for the Jets, I just can't put much trust in Rodgers until he shows me something.
Miami's offence was videogame-like in 2023 and it ultimately came just short of winning the division. Tua Tagovailoa has improved year-over-year and he's got Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert at his disposal.
Mike McDaniel's philosophy is pretty simple: Speed kills.
The defence was underwhelming last year but should be better this time around. Kendall Fuller slots in at CB opposite Jalen Ramsey, while Jordyn Brooks and Jordan Poyer also enter the fold.
Texans to win AFC South (+100)
It's going to be a long decade-plus for Carolina Panthers fans watching C.J. Stroud light the league on fire.
Last year's No. 2 overall pick ran away with the offensive rookie of the year and was even getting some MVP consideration coming down the stretch.
My analysis could start and end with Stroud, who ranked first in passing yards per game (273.9), third in yards per attempt (8.2), and fifth in passer rating (100.8).
This is a quarterback-driven league, after all, and he's already one of the best.
But the Texans made some big splashes in free agency with Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. Neither player is in their prime but are nice additions to an already-loaded offence featuring Tank Dell, Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts have more questions than answers heading into the season making this pretty clearly the Texans' division to lose.
AFC futures: Top player props
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| AFC best bets | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Stroud over 4150.5 passing yards | -112 | Add to betslip |
| Watt to lead the NFL in sacks | +500 | Add to betslip |
| Henry over 10.5 rushing touchdowns | -125 | Add to betslip |
Stroud over 4150.5 passing yards (-112)
Let's dig a little deeper into how good Stroud was.
If he produced at the same clip as last year over a full 17 games he would have put up 4656.3 yards, the most in football.
And from Week 8 onwards — after getting a feel for how the NFL operates — he was averaging 288.5 yards per game. That would net out to 4904.5 yards over a full season.
Stroud also led the NFL in average air yards (9.1), per RBSDM, and Diggs is another big-play weapon for him
The Texans aren't shy to let it fly. If Stroud stays healthy he should absolutely obliterate this total.
Watt to lead the NFL in sacks (+500)
Was T.J. Watt robbed of the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2023?
Ah, who's to say (me) ... but he did lead the league in sacks and I expect that to happen again. Last year you could back Watt on this market at +1,000 preseason (as I did) and now those odds are halved, and reasonably so.
Watt has won this award three times in the last four seasons with the exception being 2022 when he missed seven games with an injury.
Even with that shortened campaign, no one has more sacks than his 96.5 since entering the league in 2017.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have another stud EDGE rusher opposite him in Alex Highsmith with Cameron Heyward being a force on the line. That limits double-team opportunities, which was one of the knocks on Watt's production last season.
But fewer double teams are great for Watt and great for bettors on this market. He set the NFL record for sacks in 2021 (22.5) and I think he could clear that number this season.
Henry over 10.5 rushing touchdowns (-125)
This line feels absurdly low.
Gus Edwards was Baltimore's goal line bell cow last season and he nabbed 13 rushing touchdowns. That was one more than Henry who was played in a much, much worse offence.
Baltimore had the second-most red zone scoring attempts per game (3.9) and Edwards had the most carries of any running back within the five-yard line (23).
There's not much more to say here. I think Henry will threaten to top his career-high touchdown mark set in 2020 (17).
AFC win totals
Steelers over 8.5 wins (+118)
In Mike Tomlin I trust.
Pittsburgh's Hall of Fame-bound head coach has never had a losing season. He's cashed this wager in four straight years with a nightmare quarterback situation.
Rolling with an entirely washed Ben Roethlisberger, Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph it's a miracle the Black and Gold even got to eight wins some seasons.
But it looks like things are finally turning a corner.
Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are both serious upgrades on the Pickett/Rudolph tandem that was under centre last year.
The offence is loaded with weapons like George Pickens, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth behind a line which really hit its stride in the back half of 2023.
The defence should be among the league's best if it stays healthy.
Watt and Highsmith are a nasty combo off the edge while All-Pro Patrick Queen was brought in to shore up a weak spot at middle linebacker. The secondary can be suspect at times but Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joey Porter Jr. are capable of being game wreckers.
The Steelers should be in the playoff hunt, as always.
Chargers under 8.5 wins (+125)
I can't get behind the Chargers this season.
On one hand, a complete overhaul of a 5-12 team is a good thing. On another, I believe it's asking a bit much of the squad to completely re-invent itself in one offseason.
Jim Harbaugh is a great coach and Justin Herbert is a gunslinger but the team's receiving corps is entirely unproven and its running back room is aging with injury issues.
That said, it was the defence which was the main problem last year and most of that unit is back.
Jesse Minter came over from Michigan as the team's new defensive coordinator. He'll need some time to figure out what works and what doesn't with a bunch of big names who were often injured and didn't perform while healthy.
It feels like L.A.'s entire season hinges on Herbert having a career year but he's already banged up (foot) and has an entirely new offence to master.
I think 2025 is when Harbaugh puts this team on the map.
AFC futures picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 08/26/24.
