Internally, it'd be fair to assume the Toronto Maple Leafs futures odds still hold championship expectations for themselves. But that sentiment is waning a bit based on their current Stanley Cup line.
The latest: The Leafs have +1,600 odds to win it all in 2024-25, with eight teams situated ahead of them. On the brighter side, Auston Matthews' futures markets suggest he's in for another superstar season.
Check out the latest Maple Leafs futures odds for the 2024-25 NHL season.
Maple Leafs futures odds overview
Toronto lost a handful of recognizable names in free agency this year, which is always bound to happen. But with nine of last year's top 10 scorers still on the roster (pending a possible Nicholas Robertson trade), the team is effectively running it back.
Go ahead and decide for yourself whether that's a good thing.
Toronto topped the 100-point mark for the third consecutive season and qualified for its eighth consecutive postseason. But like all the playoff appearances before, the Leafs burned out quickly this past spring.
As long as the core of Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares are together, Toronto will continue fostering Stanley Cup-sized expectations.
It's getting more and more difficult to envision the realization of that dream, though.
Maple Leafs futures odds: Stanley Cup
Toronto entered the 2023-24 season with +1,000 odds to win the Cup, so clearly the sentiment surrounding this team has shifted a bit.
At +1,600, the Leafs' championship odds equate to a 5.88% implied probability. Four of the eight teams ahead of them are Eastern Conference foes: reigning champion Florida Panthers (+1,100), New Jersey Devils (+1,100), Carolina Hurricanes (+1,150) and New York Rangers (+1,400).
For added context, consider that the odds for the frontrunner Edmonton Oilers (+800) are half as long as Toronto's.
The Maple Leafs have had one playoff series win since 2004. As far as title odds are concerned, they haven't earned the benefit of the doubt.
Maple Leafs Eastern Conference odds
Given that Toronto is fifth on the Cup odds leaderboard among Eastern Conference teams, it makes sense that the Leafs have the fifth-shortest odds to win the East.
Last year, Toronto had +525 conference odds. That would be just a smidge longer than the odds for the Panthers and Devils this year, who are co-favourites at +500.
Toronto went 3-4-0 collectively against the Panthers and Devils last season.
Imagine how much different the Leafs' odds might've looked in the 1960s when they hoisted the Cup four times. Mind you, there were only six teams back then. Toronto has never won a conference championship.
Atlantic Division odds
Fresh off a Cup win, the Panthers are the unsurprising favourites to win the Atlantic. But the Maple Leafs are right behind them.
Toronto's only division crown since 2000 came in the fluky all-Canadian division during the COVID-shortened season a few years ago.
Recently, the Leafs have spent more seasons chasing some combination of the Panthers, Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning. But the Bruins appear to be aging out of their competitive window and the Lightning just lost Steven Stamkos, so Toronto is a logical runner-up contender behind the Cats.
Auston Matthews' futures odds
If you've read this far, just know we're done with the doom and gloom portion of the article. This section is all about Matthews, who established himself as the world's best active goalscorer last year by potting 69 goals in the regular season.
Rocket Richard Trophy odds
Several NHLers had banner seasons last year, but none came close to matching Matthews in the goal department. He was 12 tallies clear of the next closest player, Sam Reinhart (57).
Matthews has now paced the NHL in goals in three of the past four seasons, averaging 61.5 goals per 82 games in that span.
Being a preseason odds-on favourite to lead the league in goals is high praise. A price like this doesn't make for a very enticing futures wager, but it's difficult to argue given Matthews' stellar track record of filling the net.
Hart Trophy odds
In practically any other season, Matthews' 69 goals would've been enough of a trump card to net him the Hart Trophy.
But last year, a trio of players crested the 130-point mark and bumped Matthews down to fourth on the ballot.
If Matthews flirts with a 70-goal season again, what are the chances he's washed out by a bunch of overachieving point-producers? Not great.
Dating back to 1996-97, there have only been four instances of a player tallying 130-plus points ... and three of them happened to occur last year.
In other words, keep the goals coming, Matthews. If so, you'll give yourself a solid chance to claim a second league MVP award.
