I'm searching for value all over the board to kick off the NFL season.
The pregame narrative: The Miami Dolphins are primed for a hot start against the Jacksonville Jaguars while Justin Jefferson should torch the New York Giants. One ATS pick and one over/under round out these plays.
Check out the best NFL Week 1 best bets for the start of the 2024-25 season.
NFL Week 1 best bets
Go to full NFL Week 1 betting markets.
Best Bet: Dolphins over 26.5 points (-113)
Miami's offence was doing things last season that would make the greatest show on turf blush.
It averaged the second-most points per game (29.2), the most yards per game (401.3) and ranked fourth in offensive EPA per play (+0.095), per RBSDM.
The Dolphins cleared this total in nine of 17 games, including each of their first four at home.
That latter point shouldn't be overlooked. It is sweltering in South Beach right now and the visitors at Hard Rock Stadium notoriously have to sit unshaded in the heat.
Imagine trying to keep up with the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert while dealing with that. Spoiler alert... you can't.
The Fins put up an absurd 70 points on the Denver Broncos in Week 3 last year and followed that up with 31 points against the New York Giants and 42 against the Carolina Panthers.
But even if this game was played in a neutral-site dome I would love the Dolphins' chances of lighting up the scoreboard.
The Jaguars gave up the seventh-most passing yards per game last year and absolutely unravelled following their bye week.
Jacksonville went 3-6 down the stretch, giving up 28-plus points five different times. I don't trust that defence — especially its secondary — to be much better in 2024.
Key stat: Miami averaged 31.9 points per game at home last year.
Quick picks
Jefferson over 6.5 receptions (-106): Going from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold is a considerable downgrade but Jefferson performed with some questionable QBs last season.
The three-time All-Pro received double-digit targets in seven of his 10 starts, clearing this line five times while landing on six catches twice.
Nick Mullens was under centre for the last few games and the team's plan was clear: Get the ball to Jefferson as much as possible.
Kevin O'Connell is a great offensive mind and will be able to scheme Jefferson open against an awful New York Giants defence.
The G-Men allowed the 10th-most yards per game to receivers and have PFF's No. 31-ranked secondary heading into the season.
Saints -4 (-110): Laying points with Derrick Carr... gross.
I wouldn't blame you for thinking that but Bryce Young and the Panthers are well outside their depth in the Superdome.
Carolina was a league-worst 2-15 SU and 4-11-2 ATS last year. The worst part? It didn't even get a consolation prize after dealing away the 2024 first-overall pick in a package deal for Young.
That's tracking to be one of the worst NFL trades ever. I don't believe a franchise can rebound from quickly.
Young ranked last among starters in yards per attempt (5.5) and quarterback rating (73.7) in 2023. Carr had considerably better numbers (7.1 YPA, 97.7 QBR) and has more weapons to get the ball to.
The Saints' defence was also quietly disruptive, racking up the fourth-most takeaways (29). Young should be in for a tough game.
Cowboys/Browns under 42 points (-110): This is one of the best matchups of Week 1 but don't expect fireworks.
The Browns and Cowboys ranked first and fourth, respectively, in defensive EPA per play last season.
Cleveland's defence was especially dominant at home, giving up just 13.9 points per game. That bodes well against a Dallas offence which struggled to perform on the road.
The Cowboys averaged 36.8 points per game at AT&T Stadium and 23.3 points elsewhere.
So why don't I just back the Browns ATS? Well, I have zero faith in Deshaun Watson.
The QB has played in just 12 games since 2020 and only has 14 touchdowns with a 59.4% completion rate.
This should be a rock fight.
NFL picks made at 1:46 p.m. on 09/03/24.
