The NFL is back and I'm targeting a pair of road underdogs in Week 1.
The pregame narrative: The Chicago Bears enter the Caleb Williams era as 4.5-point favourites over the Tennessee Titans. But I expect an upset in the Windy City and am also backing the Pittsburgh Steelers to win in Atlanta.
Check out how these NFL Week 1 underdog picks.
NFL Week 1 underdog picks
Go to full NFL Week 1 betting markets.
Best bet: Titans moneyline (+175)
Chicago's new-look offence is stacked.
The Bears selected Williams first overall and used the No. 9 pick on standout receiver Rome Odunze. Ryan Poles also signed Keenan Allen and D'Andre Swift to shore up a unit that struggled to perform in 2023.
This isn't a bet against Chicago's future, which is bright. But Tennesee also has boatloads of talent on offence and I like its chances of playing spoiler in Week 1.
Will Levis showed flashes as a gunslinger last season and now he's got guys to throw to.
Tennesee brought in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to slot alongside DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins suffered an injury in the preseason but the team is optimistic he'll suit up in Week 1.
Levis led two scoring drives while completing 7-of-8 passes for 118 yards in his final preseason game.
Big gain to @CalvinRidley1.
— NFL (@NFL) August 25, 2024
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The Titans should be able to put up points under new head coach Brian Callahan who most recently served as offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals.
On defence, they traded for cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, who was instrumental in the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl run, and signed Chidobe Awuzie to play opposite him.
The secondary was a weak spot last year but should be improved this time around.
All the pressure is on Chicago here. Tennessee has plenty of sleeper potential this season and should thrive in the underdog role.
Key stat: Cincinnati had the seventh-best offensive EPA per play over the last three seasons with Callahan at OC, per RBSDM.
Week 1 upset predictions
Steelers moneyline (+130): Did someone say Arthur Smith revenge game?
The former Atlanta Falcons head coach was relieved of his duties last offseason and landed in Pittsburgh as the team's new offensive coordinator.
He enters an interesting situation with Russell Wilson under centre and I'm buying stock.
The nine-time Pro Bowler is in the twilight of his career but put up sneakily solid numbers (66.4% completion rate, 26:8 TD-to-INT ratio) last season.
Wilson has George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth to target behind a strong ground game. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren were running wild down the stretch in 2023 and Pittsburgh used its third-round pick to draft centre Zach Frazier, filling the one glaring hole on the unit.
Kirk Cousins debuts for Atlanta and I think he'll be solid this year. But the veteran played no preseason snaps coming off a torn Achillies and will have to deal with a rabid Pittsburgh defence in Week 1.
Mike Tomlin-led teams have always performed as a road underdog and I expect him to capitalize.
Picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET on 08/30/2024.
