Coming off back-to-back Super Bowl titles, Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs into another season with sky-high expectations.
The preseason narrative: The Chiefs are the Super Bowl frontrunners and Mahomes leads the way on the MVP odds leaderboard. It's nothing new for the two-time MVP and three-time champ, though. And with a revamped wide receivers room, he could be in for another banner season.
Check out our Mahomes NFL futures odds and analysis ahead of the 2024 season.
Mahomes NFL futures odds
Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| Market | Odds |
| Over 32.5 passing TDs | -125 |
| Under 32.5 passing TDs | +101 |
| Over 4,300.5 passing yards | -112 |
| Under 4,300.5 passing yards | -112 |
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It's easy to shower praise on Mahomes, the clear-cut best football player on the planet right now. But if we're being real, Mahomes' 2023 regular season was his worst in six years as a starter.
He posted career lows in the following categories:
- TDs (27)
- TD rate (4.5%)
- Pass yards per game (261.4)
- Pass yards per attempt (7.0)
- Air yards per attempt (6.9)
- Passer rating (92.6)
- QBR (63.1)
He was still a Pro Bowler and the seventh-place finisher in MVP voting. But we expect more than that from Mahomes, who'd topped 4,500 yards and 35 TDs in four of the previous five seasons.
If he hits those benchmarks again, he'll cash the over on both of his season-long futures totals.
It'd be a chicken-and-the-egg conundrum to try to figure out last year's offensive issues in Kansas City. Was Mahomes simply having a down year, or was he hampered by a weak receiving corps?
Either way, the weapons look a lot more enticing on paper entering 2024. Travis Kelce is still producing at a Pro Bowl clip, while Rashee Rice — potentially staring down a suspension, but perhaps not until 2025 — is coming off a 938-yard campaign as a rookie.
The Chiefs added to their arsenal in the offseason by signing former 1,000-yard receiver Marquise Brown and drafting combine speed demon Xavier Worthy in the first round.
Mahomes MVP odds
NFL MVP is a quarterback's award, so it's no surprise to see that all 17 players with odds inside of 50-to-1 play under centre.
And leading the way at 5-to-1 is Mahomes, who already has two MVPs on the shelf.
In 2022, Mahomes led the league in passing yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41) en route to claiming 48 of 50 first-place MVP votes. When he's on top of his game, there are few who can challenge him.
What Mahomes doesn't have is the run game potential of someone like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen. But if his passing production bounces back this year, that might not matter.
Patrick Mahomes top prop bet
Best Bet: Over 32.5 pass TDs (-125)
I'm not making a pick just for the sake of it. I genuinely think Mahomes can make a six-TD improvement this year to cash this bet.
One reason why is that I think they'll have more explosive plays in their future with the speedy additions of Brown and Worthy.
Mahomes only had three TDs outside the red zone last year. From 2020-22, he averaged 10.7 pass TDs per season outside the red zone.
In the past two seasons, Mahomes as paced the NFL in red zone pass attempts. So he still has a high floor in the most valuable section of the field. But if Brown and Worthy help him regain some lost production from further out, his TD total could soar.
Furthermore, Mahomes' 4.5% TD rate last year was well below his career average of 6.1%. That alone is due for some positive regression.
Pick made at 3:45 p.m. on 08/12/24.
