Paul Skenes is eyeing some hardware in his rookie season with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The latest: The 2023 No. 1 overall pick has fallen down the Cy Young board after a string of mediocre outings. Skenes has a 2.30 ERA and 0.97 WHIP through 16 starts, which would rank first and second in the NL if he had enough innings to qualify.
Here are the latest Skenes Cy Young odds as of August 22.
Skenes Cy Young odds
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Can Pittsburgh's rookie make history?
If Skenes was pitching for Pittsburgh from the jump, his odds to win the Cy Young would probably be in minus territory.
After all, the former LSU Tiger didn't take long adjusting to major league hitting.
Skenes put up a 2.45 ERA through his first four career starts — which was already great — and then hit the gas pedal.
He posted a 1.69 ERA in nine games in June and July, logging eight-plus strikeouts in seven of those contests.
The righty has slumped since with a 4.15 ERA in August and that's actually pushed him out of being the favourite to win the NL Rookie of the Year.
But his swing-and-miss ability makes him a natural contender to get right back in the race.
Skenes' 11.3 K/9 mark is the sixth best in MLB while his 31.9% K rate ranks in Baseball Savant's 93rd percentile.
The only real knock on Skenes' case is that he hasn't pitched enough. He's logged 98.0 innings as of Aug. 22, while arms like Chris Sale (140.2) and Zack Wheeler (154.2) have slightly worse numbers over much larger samples.
Pittsburgh has also bowed out of the wild-card race, meaning Skenes' workload could decrease.
It's worth noting only one player has won the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in the same season (Fernando Valenzuela, 1981).
Other NL Cy Young odds
The favourite: Chris Sale (-500)
So is it worth backing Skenes at that number? With the way Sale has been pitching, maybe not.
The veteran southpaw has a 2.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 23 starts with an NL-best 12.0 K/9 rate.
It's hard to imagine those numbers suddenly ballooning because Sale doesn't give up much hard contact.
His 0.5 HR/9 rate is the third-best in MLB while his 29.3% hard-hit rate and 85.9 mph average exit velocity rank in the 98th and 95th percentile, respectively.
