The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs clash on Thursday to kickstart a new NFL season.
The pregame narrative: In a game loaded with offensive talent, the defensive units from both teams are amongst the strongest in the league. Therefore, I'm backing the under in an intriguing Week 1 matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs.
Check out my Ravens vs. Chiefs best bet for their Week 1 matchup on Sept. 5.
Ravens vs. Chiefs best bet
Go to full NFL betting markets
Last year's Super Bowl champions against the No. 1 seed from the regular season. What a matchup.
The Ravens stormed out of the gate last season and never looked back, finishing with a 12-3 record. They ultimately fell short against the Chiefs in the AFC championship game.
In the offseason, Baltimore added arguably the best running back of the last decade, Derrick Henry. The expectation is that he will pair exceptionally well with the dual-threat style of Lamar Jackson.
Kansas City had an up-and-down season going 11-6 but Patrick Mahomes and the defence stepped up when it counted and won the Chiefs' third Super Bowl in the Mahomes era.
Now, Week 1 of the NFL season provides a blockbuster matchup between these two contenders.
Take the under on TNF
Best Bet: First half - under 22.5 points (-104)
Even though both these sides possess powerful offences, their defensive units stole the show in the AFC championship last season. The game finished 17-10.
While the Chiefs didn't turn the ball over, the Ravens did — three times.
I don't expect the same sloppy play on Thursday but I do expect an early run-heavy approach from both sides resulting in a running clock.
Baltimore should be ecstatic to go to the ground game with the acquisition of Henry in the backfield. In all honesty, the Ravens could improve on their league-leading 156.4 rushing yards per game from last season. However, I'm not expecting it to come together right away.
In the first nine weeks last season, 22-of-29 primetime games (Thursday, Sunday, Monday) stayed under their totals (75.8%). A lot of that was due to safe playcalling and running the football. I expect much of the same in the first game of the year, especially in the opening half.
For Kansas City, Mahomes was much worse on Thursday and Monday nights last year as compared to other situations. He threw six touchdowns and four picks in four Monday/Thursday games. For context, he had a 21:10 TD-to-INT ratio on Sundays.
For at least one half of football, I am backing the Ravens and Chiefs' defences while the offensive units figure things out.
Key stat: Both defences combined to allow 17.7 first-half points per game last season.
Picks made at 10:08 p.m. ET 09/03/2024.
