The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs kick off the 2024-25 NFL season on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: A pair of future Hall of Famers headline these prop bets. Derrick Henry has new threads and he should rumble in his Ravens debut. I'm also taking the over on Travis Kelce's reception prop.
Check out my Ravens vs. Chiefs prop picks for Sept. 5.
Ravens vs. Chiefs prop picks
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Best Bet: Henry over 65.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Ravens abandoned the run in last year's AFC championship game and it came back to bite them.
Baltimore had just 16 rushing attempts and half of those came from Lamar Jackson. The running back room — comprised of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill — combined for three carries and 23 yards in a 17-10 defeat.
So why did John Harbaugh decide to stop pounding the rock? After all, the Ravens averaged a league-best 156.5 rushing yards per game during the regular season.
Your answer is as good as mine ... and as good as Henry's.
The running back was asked if he could have made a difference in last year's title game and said: "Hell yeah, I wish I could suit up that day watching the game. But now it's my turn, so (I've) got to take advantage of it."
With a bonafide bell cow in the backfield, I don't expect Harbaugh to make the same mistake twice.
Henry averaged 68.6 yards per game last year, clearing this mark in nine of 17 games. That was behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. On Baltimore, he should have every opportunity to return to his All-Pro levels of the past.
Since 2019, the former Tennesee Titan has gashed the Chiefs for 458 yards and five touchdowns in four games. He last played KC in 2022 and had 17 carries for 115 yards.
Kansas City's run defence was elite last year but Henry should see the bulk of carries untill Keaton Mitchell returns from the PUP list late this season. Bet on one of the best ever to make a strong first impression.
Key stat: Henry has cleared this line in five straight games versus KC.
Quick picks
Kelce over 5.5 receptions (-139): Kelce failed to amass 1,000 yards last season for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era.
But he came up clutch when it mattered, hauling in all 11 of his targets in the AFC title game for 116 yards and a touchdown before catching 9-of-10 for 93 yards in the Super Bowl.
Kansas City has a much improved receiving corps to work with this year after acquiring Hollywood Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy — but don't forget who the top dog is.
Kelce still went over this line in 12 of 19 games last year (postseason and playoffs) while landing on exactly five receptions in three of the outliers.
The Ravens also allowed the 11th-most receptions per game to tight ends, according to DraftEdge.com.
I'll gladly bet on Kelce to have a huge game even with these juiced odds.
Picks made at 12:36 p.m. ET 09/02/2024.
