Ladies and gents, we've made it. Week 1 of the NFL season is here, and it starts with an AFC championship game rematch between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs.
The pregame narrative: In a matchup featuring a pair of two-time MVP quarterbacks, I've built a four-leg parlay around running backs and defence. Don't forget that the Ravens and Chiefs ranked first and second, respectively, in scoring defence last season.
Check out our Ravens vs. Chiefs predictions for the season opener on Thursday, Sept. 5.
Ravens vs. Chiefs SGP predictions
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Parlay: Under 52.5 points + Ravens +7.5 + Henry over 49.5 rush yards + Pacheco over 49.5 rush yards (+370)
Baltimore allowed a league-low 16.5 points per game in the regular season last year. KC's defence was just behind that at 17.3 PPG.
And when these teams met with the conference title on the line, they combined for just 27 total points.
It's tempting to look at overs with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson on the field ... but guys like Chris Jones and Roquan Smith will be out there, too.
At this number, the under was 14-5 in Ravens games last year. All 21 Chiefs games went below this total.
SGP legs
Jackson, coming off an MVP campaign, now has future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry flanking him in the backfield. Baltimore is fully healthy on both sides of the ball and should put up a great fight.
Baltimore's solid offensive line lost three starters but should still be better than the group Henry ran behind with the Tennessee Titans in 2023. Either way, this is a modest yardage total for the elite workhorse.
Henry was a Pro Bowler in four of the past five seasons, averaging 100.1 rush yards per game in that span.
For as strong as the Chiefs' defence figures to be, it bends to the run game sometimes. KC ranked 24th in the NFL last year in yards allowed per rush (4.5).
Pacheco over 49.5 rush yards (-230): Like the Chiefs, the Ravens' stout defence was prone to some occasional lapses in the run game last year and allowed a hearty 4.5 yards per tote. That helps make the case for this pick.
As does the fact that Pacheco was impressively reliable at this yardage milestone.
The 2022 seventh-rounder followed a strong rookie season with even better results last year, rushing for 66.8 yards/game during the regular season. In 18 total games (playoffs included) Pacheco cashed this bet 14 times.
That includes his 68-yard output against the Ravens in the AFC title match.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 09/04/24.
