Tom Brady next team odds: Bucs favoured to retain legend
Tom Brady's future is in doubt after a subpar year in Tampa Bay. Photo by Rick Scuteri/AP

After a disappointing campaign that resulted in a swift playoff exit, Tom Brady is hitting free agency.

The latest: The Buccaneers have a solid infrastructure to help Brady succeed, but he may look elsewhere after a rough season in Tampa Bay. The 45-year-old has often been linked to the Las Vegas Raiders, while the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets are two teams with excellent rosters and question marks at quarterback.

Check out our latest Tom Brady next team odds.

Tom Brady next team odds

Check out the latest odds on which team Tom Brady will play for next. Click linked odds below to add selection to your betslip.

TeamOdds (Jan. 30)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+200
Las Vegas Raiders+225
Any other team+300
San Francisco 49ers+500
New York Jets+900

Odds as of 9:23 a.m. on 01/30/2023.

Best odds to land Tom Brady

The favourite: Buccaneers (+200)

Taking a 30,000-foot view, re-upping with Tampa Bay might not be a bad idea for Brady.

The Buccaneers have an elite pair of starting receivers that he trusts and a defence that was narrowly above average in both points allowed and Football Outsiders' DVOA during the regular season. Plus, the Bucs play in a weak division that they'll likely be favoured to win if he returns.

Those factors give Tampa Bay a high floor as a destination for Brady. But he might not think the team's ceiling is high enough.

Tampa Bay looks well over the cap for next season and it's hard to see the team making impactful upgrades. That means Brady would be counting on a healthier offensive line and regression to the mean for the team's top defenders to help Tampa Bay bounce back to its winning ways.

It could happen, but that's a bet Brady might feel uneasy about with so little sand left in his hourglass.

Next best odds to land Tom Brady

Las Vegas Raiders (+225): Las Vegas exiled its longtime starting quarterback, Derek Carr, late in the season and the team has quality pass-catching options — as well as a head coach Brady knows well.

It's easy to connect the dots between Brady and Josh McDaniels, his longtime offensive coordinator in New England. But there's reason for skepticism here, too.

Brady may not have interest in playing for a team without realistic Super Bowl aspirations. And that's a description that certainly fits the Raiders right now due to the state of their defence.

Las Vegas allowed the seventh-most points this season and it doesn't have the personnel to stop good offensive teams from scoring with impunity.

If Brady chooses the Raiders, he'll be opting to go to war in the AFC West against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. He'd be doing that with a below-average defence at his back — a daunting proposition to say the least.

Going to Las Vegas would mean tangling with two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Photo by Charlie Riedel/AP.

Teams to watch

San Francisco 49ers (+500): Brady has been linked to the 49ers numerous times during his career. The team he rooted for growing up has struggled to find a franchise quarterback in recent years.

Going to San Francisco would be appealing for Brady as the team has a championship-calibre roster with the quarterback position as its only question mark. It's less clear if signing Brady is a good idea for this 49ers team.

If San Francisco signed Brady, it would be relegating 2021 third overall pick Trey Lance to at least one more season without game reps. It would also be sidelining Brocky Purdy, who the team may decide to roll with depending on its level of playoff success behind the rookie.

This wager assumes that the 49ers aren't happy with two viable QB options and serves as a bit of a fade on their current playoff run.

A bet on Brady to SF is likely a bet against the team's current run behind Brock Purdy. Photo by Josie Lepe/AP.

New York Jets (+900): The Jets are ready to win if they can get quality quarterback play and the idea of multiple AFC East matchups between Brady and Bill Belichick is undoubtedly appealing.

If Brady went to New York, he'd get to play with an exciting young group of skill-position players. That group includes receivers Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Corey Davis — plus a running back room with Breece Hall, Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight.

Brady would also be supported by a top-notch defence that held opponents to 18.6 points per game during the regular season (second in the NFL). The on-field fit makes sense.

The Jets lack an incumbent quarterback they'd be reluctant to move off. There have been no rumblings, however, on Brady having any interest in New York.

He's also gone on the record expressing reluctance to play in cold weather again — perhaps jokingly.

NorthStar Bets editorial Insiders have no influence, direct or otherwise, over the setting of odds advertised on our platforms.