When a generational quarterback prospect like Trevor Lawrence shows signs that he's figuring it out in the NFL, bettors should take notice.
No player at the position made bigger strides through the course of the 2022 season than Lawrence. His ascent led the Jacksonville Jaguars to a playoff berth, a playoff win and some invaluable experience for a team desperately looking to break through.
We'll show you why Lawrence is set up to win MVP in the 2023 NFL season and is a great bet at +1,700.
Trevor Lawrence MVP case
Seeing it is believing it, and Lawrence has already shown that he can play at an MVP level.
The 2021 first overall pick put the league on notice during the second half of the season. Take a look at how his numbers from the final nine games of the season compare to his AFC contemporaries.
With the exception of eventual MVP winner Patrick Mahomes, it's fair to claim that no QB in the conference was more efficient than Lawrence down the stretch.
His sterling numbers led to eye-popping results, too, as the Jags went 7-2 to close out the year while clinching the AFC South title.
Trevor Lawrence MVP odds: +1,700. Click here to bet
His effort against the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round can't be ignored, either. Lawrence threw four first-half interceptions before leading his team to four consecutive touchdown drives and a field goal to lock up a 31-30 win in a game Jacksonville once trailed, 27-0.
It's important to remember that this was just Lawrence's second season and first with head coach Doug Pederson after the failed Urban Meyer experiment. In a lot of respects, his 2022 campaign should really be viewed as his rookie campaign.
Knowing that Lawrence can play at the level required to win NFL MVP is a major plus.
Trevor Lawrence MVP case: Ridley to the rescue
When comparing Lawrence to the AFC's best gunslingers, we didn't even bring up each player's top receiving option.
Mahomes had Travis Kelce, Allen had Stefon Diggs, Burrow had Ja'Marr Chase and Lawrence had... Christian Kirk?
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Kirk is a solid slot receiver coming off his most productive season in the league, but let's face it, nobody is arguing he's in the same class as the names mentioned above.
But Jacksonville swung an under-the-radar move ahead of last year's trade deadline, acquiring Calvin Ridley from the Atlanta Falcons and he'll be joining the lineup in 2023.
Ridley missed the entire 2022 season serving a suspension for gambling on football and he only played part of the 2021 campaign while dealing with personal issues.
|Trevor Lawrence betting markets||Betting odds|
|Over 4,050.5 passing yards||-124|
|Under 4,050.5 passing yards||+100|
|Over 26.5 passing touchdowns||-118|
|Under 26.5 passing touchdowns||-106|
|Over 10.5 interceptions||-112|
|Under 10.5 interceptions||-112|
NFL odds as of 3:02 p.m. ET on 08/25/2023.
The last time the talented wideout suited up for a full season was in 2020, and his numbers from that year are superb.
Ridley totalled 1,374 receiving yards, tying Davante Adams for fifth among all wide receivers. He also had nine receiving touchdowns which were tied for 10th.
Quarterbacks like Allen, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa have all made massive strides with the addition of a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver. While many are quick to point to Justin Fields (whose MVP case you can read about here) as someone who can follow this career arc, the same argument can be applied to Lawrence.
An often overlooked part of Hurts' 2022 MVP-calibre season was his schedule. The Philadelphia Eagles had the second-easiest schedule entering the year, according to Sharp Football.
It's a big reason why Philadelphia went 14-1 in games Hurts played in last season. The Eagles' spot atop the NFC standings put him near the head of the MVP race, one he would've likely won if not for an injury that cost him a pair of games at the end of the year.
Like Hurts, Lawrence will benefit from an easy schedule.
The Jaguars have the fifth-easiest schedule in the AFC and the 12th-easiest overall. Their campaign appears to be substantially easier than other reigning AFC division winners like the Cincinnati Bengals (20th), Kansas City Chiefs (28th) and Buffalo Bills (29th).
Jacksonville's schedule still has a number of games that'll catch the eyes of award voters, though. The Jags host the Chiefs (Week 2), Bengals (Week 13), and Ravens (Week 15), and head to London, England to play the Bills (Week 5).
If Lawrence can score a couple of wins over teams led by MVP candidates, his case to win the award will be unavoidable.
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