After dropping out of the World Baseball Classic to ensure his knee is 100%, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s focus is firmly on the 2022 season.
The latest: The Toronto Blue Jays star is coming off a season that would be considered spectacular by most players' standards but fell short of his 2021 production. He enters 2023 hoping for a bounce back as he anchors a lineup that lost Teoscar Hernandez in the offseason.
Check out our Vladimir Guerrero Jr. futures odds for the upcoming MLB season.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. futures odds
Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
|Home runs||37.5||Over (-106) or Under (-121)|
|RBI||97.5||Over (-113) or Under (-113)|
|Hits||170.5||Over (-113) or Under (-113)|
MLB odds as of 2:36 p.m. ET on 03/07/2023.
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Home runs O/U: 37.5
At first glance, this looks like a relatively modest line for Guerrero Jr. considering his raw power and ability to consistently put the ball in play.
That said, just one of FanGraphs' seven projection systems is smelling an over here considering Vladdy has cleared this line just once in his career. The fact the under is slightly juiced is another indication of where the probabilities lie.
Even so, there is a bull case to be made for Guerrero on this line considering he's averaged 40 home runs over the last two seasons and has a sterling record when it comes to durability.
RBI O/U: 97.5
While you could make a case for either side of the home run lines, this is an over waiting to happen.
Guerrero Jr. will occupy a prime spot in what projects to be a strong lineup and he's averaged 104 RBI over the last two years. He hit this under last season, but only by a single RBI in what was a disappointing campaign.
The biggest risk for over bettors is health, but there's no reason to doubt a 23-year-old who has played 321 of a possible 324 games in the last two years.
Hits O/U: 170.5
This is another line that looks a touch low. Vladdy has cleared this line in both 2021 and 2022, averaging 181.5 hits in those seasons.
There's plenty of leeway for Guerrero to have a season that's not among his best and still hit this over as he did last year.
He may even pick up a few extra hits due to the elimination of the shift. There has been some kind of shift on for 43.2% of the balls in play he's hit during his career.
Other Vladmir Guerrero Jr. markets
|To win AL MVP||+1,400|
|To lead MLB in home runs||+800|
|To lead MLB in RBI||+800|
|To lead MLB in runs||+2,000|
|To lead MLB in hits||+1,500|
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. futures odds, MVP: +1,400
Picking anyone but Shohei Ohtani to win AL MVP is a dangerous game, and we can't say we like Vladdy's chances.
Although he finished second in voting in 2021, that took a performance he would have a hard time replicating in 2023. You need a historically excellent season like the one Aaron Judge just produced to beat Ohtani at this point.
Guerrero is capable of doing that, but it's a tough thing to bet on. The fact that he's a first baseman who doesn't offer much on the bases also drags down his WAR numbers, which hurts him with voters.
Home run leader: +800
Topping the home run leaderboard is within Guerrero's possible range of outcomes, but it would be wise to stay away at this price.
While he has the second-shortest odds on the board, ZiPS projects him for the eighth-most home runs in the majors next year.
Until he proves that his groundball woes are behind him, he can't be considered a likely home run leader. This might be a bet to explore midway through the season if it seems clear that he's found a launch angle that reliably results in balls in the air.
RBI leader: +800
This is probably more enticing than the home run leader bet because Guerrero can achieve this even if he's spraying line drives instead of consistently clearing the wall.
One risk associated with this bet is that it is somewhat tied to George Springer's health. The leadoff man creates plenty of RBI opportunities for Vladdy when he's healthy, but he struggles to stay on the field.
Runs leader: +2,000
We tend to associate run scoring with speed, but that's not always the case. Guerrero led the league in runs in 2021, which is pretty strong proof of concept for a guy with odds this long.
One thing to watch will be where he slots in the lineup. If manager John Schneider consistently puts him in the two-hole then Guerrero's chances of putting up a massive run total would increase.
Having a Silver Slugger like Hernandez hitting behind him helped Guerrero score plenty of runs in the past but the Blue Jays lineup is still potent enough to bring him around consistently.
Hits leader: +1,500
Guerrero is durable, doesn't strike out too much and doesn't walk at a disqualifying rate, but this would be a significant mountain to climb for him.
He ranked third in the majors in hits in his career year in 2021 but fell to 10th last season.
One of the biggest issues he faces is teammate Bo Bichette, a free swinger who has out-hit him in each of the last two seasons and has significantly more hits per game in his career (1.22) than Guerrero (1.09).
Best Vladimir Guerrero Jr. bet
|Guerrero best bet||Odds||Bet now ⬇️|
|Over 97.5 RBI||-113||Add to betslip|
Of all the bets above, our favourite is Guerrero's RBI over.
He cruised over it in 2021 and fell just short last year, largely because he hit an uncharacteristically poor .267/.355/.425 with runners in scoring position.
He's likely to do better in those spots this season, leading to a triple-digit RBI total.
FanGraphs' projection systems certainly think so as all seven of them are pegging the first baseman for at least 101 RBI in 2023.
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