Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians: June 15

Blue Jays picks and props vs. Guardians June 15: Take the NRFI with Trevor Richards opening

Take the NRFI in Saturday's Blue Jays vs. Guardians game. Photo by Julio Cortez/AP.

Avery Perri

June 15, 2024

The Toronto Blue Jays have a bullpen day lined up against the Cleveland Guardians.

The pregame narrative: Trevor Richards will serve as Toronto's opener and I expect him to keep Cleveland's bats at bay early. A struggling Carlos Carrasco gets the ball for the Guardians but he should still shut down the Blue Jays' anemic offence.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Guardians for June 15.

Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians

Best bet: No run first inning (-105)

Richards has held opponents scoreless in five of his last six outings. That includes a start against the Baltimore Orioles where he struck out four in two hitless innings.

The O's are an offensive juggernaut and the Guardians aren't far behind.

Cleveland ranks eighth in wRC+ (107), 11th in OPS (.718), and 14th in batting average (.240).

I don't expect the Blue Jays to win this game but Richards has the stuff to keep the Guardians bats quiet through the early going. He carries a 0.92 WHIP into this contest to pair with a stellar .136 opponent batting average.

The advanced statistics would suggest that isn't a fluke, either.

Richard's .184 xBA and 3.07 xERA rank in the 96th and 80th percentile, respectively, per Baseball Savant. He has held opponents scoreless in 22 of 29 outings.

But that's only one half of the equation.

We'll need Carrasco to shut down Toronto's offence in the bottom of the first as well. That's not too much to ask, though, considering the Blue Jays have been one of the league's worst first-inning offences.

Toronto has only scored a first-inning run in 14.49% of games which is the second worst mark in MLB.

Key stat: Toronto went 30 games without scoring a run in the first inning from May 4 to June 7.

Quick pick

Guardians moneyline (+107): The Blue Jays' offensive woes extend well beyond the opening frame.

Toronto ranks 25th in runs per game (3.86) and slugging percentage (.364) and 19th in wRC+ (95).

The Jays were held to just one run last night and have only scored five runs once in its last 11 games versus teams above .500.

And after Richards leaves, the Guardians will get to pick on a bullpen which ranks 28th in ERA (4.81) and 30th in home runs allowed (42).

But if we want to simplify things: Cleveland (44-23) wins ball games and Toronto (33-36) doesn't.

Picks made at 11:17 a.m. on 06/15/24.

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