MLB prop bets: June 15 | NorthStar Bets

Best MLB prop bets June 15: Back Freeman to record an RBI, Henderson to rake

Bet on Freddie Freeman and Gunnar Henderson. Photos by AP.

Avery Perri

June 15, 2024

Two plus-money plays headline Saturday's MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Freddie Freeman is running hot and is in a nice spot to record an RBI against struggling Kansas City Royals starter, Seth Lugo. Elsewhere, I'm backing Gunnar Henderson to record multiple bases in a plus matchup.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 15.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Freeman to record an RBI (+135)

There are a lot of reasons to love Freeman tonight.

First off, he's running hot. The first baseman is hitting .357/.462/.690 this month with nine RBI in 12 games. He's cashed this bet in four of his last eight starts and has nine hits in that span.

Hitting in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is a blessing for RBI productivity.

Freeman gets to bat behind Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani whose .406 and .379 on-base percentages rank fourth and 11th, respectively, in MLB. Freeman himself ranks fifth at .402.

That murderer's row gets 34-year-old Lugo, who has been shaky after a fantastic start to the season.

The righty carried a 1.72 ERA through 11 starts into June but got rocked his last two times out.

Lugo gave up six hits and five earned runs in 6.0 IP to the Cleveland Guardians and followed that up by giving up eight hits and four earned runs in 7.0 IP against the New York Yankees.

He's still an effective pitcher but Baseball Savant's advanced metrics show a lot of luck has gone into his success. Lugo's 3.84 xERA is 1.48 points higher than his regular ERA.

I have a tough time seeing him get through this Dodgers lineup without serious trouble.

Key stat: Freeman is hitting .331 with a 1.001 OPS versus RHP this year.

Quick picks

Henderson over 1.5 bases (+104): Taijuan Walker has been a legitimate gas can for the Philadelphia Phillies so I'm backing the hottest hitter in Baltimore as a fade.

Henderson is hitting .360 in the last seven days with three doubles and two home runs.

The shortstop's heater goes back further than that, too. He has a hit in 15 of his last 16 games with a 1.023 OPS in that span.

Now back to Walker.

The veteran righty carries a 5.45 ERA into this contest with a measly 19.3 K rate.

He ranks in the bottom-10 percentile in hard-hit rate (48.1%), barrel rate (14.3%), whiff rate (16.9%), and average exit velocity (91.5 mph).

Players are hitting Walker often and hard and I expect Henderson to absolutely tee off today.

Picks made at 2:11 p.m. ET on 06/15/2024.

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