Three pitcher props make up today's top MLB selections.
The pregame narrative: Fades on Hunter Greene and Kyle Bradish against first-place teams accompany the over on Luis Castillo's strikeout total.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Friday, June 14.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Castillo over 5.5 Ks (-152)
Castillo was originally supposed to start yesterday, which would have been a juicy matchup against the dreadful Chicago White Sox.
The assignment is more difficult today versus the division-rival Texas Rangers, but Castillo's strikeout line remains appealing.
You can go the plus-money route on 6.5, which is the standard line you will find early Friday afternoon. But I'm electing to target 5.5 at what feels like a generous price.
These odds come with a 60% implied win probability, though Castillo has topped this line in 71% of his starts.
Castillo has fallen short of six strikeouts four times this season. Those games include his season debut and matchups against the Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles.
Those clubs are three of the nine most difficult teams for righties to retire on strikes. And while Texas is also among that group, Castillo has cleared this number against them already this season.
All that's to say is that trend doesn't make him an auto-fade at this number.
The Seattle Mariners right-hander is an innings-eater and gets the start in his pitcher-friendly home park, where he has a 2.95 ERA and 27.7 K% (his numbers on the road are 3.76 and 21.9%).
Key stat: Castillo is 10-4 against this number on the season and notched six-plus Ks in 24 of 33 starts in 2023.
Quick picks
Bradish under 17.5 outs (+100): The Orioles host the Philadelphia Phillies, who handle right-handers well.
The NL-best Phillies are seventh in the majors in wRC+ versus righties, and fifth in both batting average and walk rate.
Bradish has issued multiple walks in five of seven starts, which drives up pitch counts and shortens outings.
While he has thrown the ball well this season, he has only completed six-plus innings twice. And neither of those starts came at home nor against teams remotely as capable as the Phillies (White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays).
Greene under 6.5 Ks (+112): Greene is a fireballer who can rack up strikeouts, ranking 20th in K% and second in average fastball velocity among starters, per FanGraphs.
This is a tough number for pitchers to hit, though, and is not something Greene has done with regularity this season.
The Cincinnati Reds righty is 5-8 versus this line and has hit the under on it in seven of his last nine outings.
But the bigger concern for me is the opponent. Greene faces the Milwaukee Brewers, who have handled right-handers as well as nearly any team in baseball (stats + MLB ranks below):
- .338 OBP (T-1st)
- .264 BA (2nd)
- .754 OPS (4th)
Only four starters have topped this line versus the Brewers over their last 15 games.
Picks made at 12:14 p.m. ET on 06/14/2024.