Spain vs. Croatia Euro 2024 best bet: Take the under in first Group of Death game
Check out this Spain vs. Croatia best bet. Photo by Martin Meissner/AP.

Spain and Croatia lock horns for the first heavyweight showdown of Euro 2024.

The pregame narrative: The Spaniards are favoured to win a match which will loom large in the Group of Death featuring Italy and Albania. But I'm looking towards the under with two strong defensive sides at play.

Check out this Spain vs. Croatia best bet for the match on June 15.

Spain vs. Croatia best bet and odds

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Under 2.5 goals-139Add to betslip

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Spain vs. Croatia prediction

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals (-139)

This is a big-time showdown but I don't expect lots of scoring.

These teams last met in the 2023 Nations League Finals, when Spain won 0-0 in penalties.

And it wasn't like there were a ton of chances for either side. Spain was held to just two shots on target while Croatia had five. Keep in mind the match included 30 minutes of added time.

Both teams rely heavily on possession for success, but Spain is tough to beat in that respect.

La Roja have had the most possession in each of their last 136 competitive games, including 54% in the Nations League Finals, according to The

Spain should be able to keep an older Croatian side at bay even with Gavi, a key cog in its midfield, sidelined with an ACL injury.

But the Croatians aren't exactly easy to score on.

The team conceded just three goals in the first five matches of the 2022 World Cup before getting bounced 3-0 by Argentina.

And despite playing seven games, Croatia only ranked seventh in the tournament for expected goals (7.05), via Opta Data. That came out just north of one per game, while four of its seven World Cup games went under this number.

Following that World Cup, Croatia has given up just nine goals in 14 fixtures. I expect it to play out as a draw and focus on attacking weaker defensive teams like Albania and Italy down the line.

Key stat: Spain and Croatia allowed a combined nine goals in 16 Euro 2024 qualifying matches.

Pick made at 3:42 p.m. on 06/13/24.

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