U.S. Open best bets and outright picks: Back Scheffler, Thomas and Matsuyama at Pinehurst
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Check out these U.S. Open best bets. Photos by AP.
Avery Perri
@AveryPerri
June 11, 2024

Let's not overthink this week's U.S. Open picks.

The latest: Scottie Scheffler is the best player in the world and it's not close. I'm backing him to win at iconic Pinehurst No. 2. and am also taking a pair of major champions — Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama — at much longer odds.

Check out our U.S. Open best bets and picks to win for the tournament beginning on June 13.

U.S. Open best bets

Best bet: Scheffler to win (+335)

I picked Scheffler to win last week and am going back to the well again.

Taking any golfer to win a national open at these odds might seem unpalatable. There are 156 players teeing it up in North Carolina this week and a good number of those are Scheffler's contemporaries on the PGA Tour.

But no one holds a candle to what the Texan is doing right now.

Scheffler has won five of his last eight starts, with two runner-up finishes mixed in. And the events he's won are big time: Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players, Masters, RBC Heritage, and Memorial Tournament.

That's a dream career for any player and Scheffler did it all in just four months.

Here's another way to put his dominance into perspective: Scheffler has earned $24,024,553 on the course this year.

Assuming Ted Scott, his caddie, makes the standard 10% on tournament earnings, he would sit 51st on the PGA Tour money list between Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth.

As for the actual golf, Pinehurst No. 2 will be a prodigious test.

It's 7,550 yards long. Skinny fairways are flanked with danger, the greens are small, hard to hold, and will have tucked pins. Big numbers loom at every corner and even par will be a great score for the week.

Elite iron play and a strong short game will be highly correlated to success. Scheffler is the best ball striker in the world and ranks 14th in strokes gained: around the greens (+0.379), per PGA Tour.

Key stat: Scheffler ranks first in strokes gained: tee-to-green (+2.786) and strokes gained: approach (+1.528).

Quick picks

Thomas to win (+4,000) & top-20 finish (+150): Thomas has been a tad inconsistent this year but I like his odds heading into the U.S. Open.

The former world No. 1 has been flushing the ball and owns a stellar short game.

Thomas ranks seventh in strokes gained: approach (+0.697) and 10th in strokes gained: around-the-greens (+0.445).

His putter has been a disaster but Wyndham Clark stated on Monday that the Pinehurst greens are "borderline." A tough putting week across the board should work in Thomas' favour with everyone struggling to make noise.

Thomas finished T8 at the PGA Championship in his last major start.

Matsuyama to win (+4,500) & top-20 finish (+163): Matsuyama has five top-20 finishes in his last seven starts including a win at the Genesis Invitational.

He's leading the tour in strokes gained: around-the-greens (+0.761) and ranks 19th in strokes gained: approach (+0.467).

The risk with Matsuyama is his health. He withdrew from the Walls Fargo due to a back injury in May but just played at the Memorial Tournament and carded a T8.

The 2021 Masters champion picked up strokes in all major statistical categories at Muirfield Village and I'm banking on him carrying that over to Pinehurst.

Golf picks made at 10:07 a.m. on 06/11/2024.

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